Dengue Fever in Italy: The “Eternal Return” of an Emerging Arboviral Disease

Enhanced surveillance for dengue virus (DENV) infections in Italy has been implemented since 2012, with annual reports from the National Health Institute. In this study, we summarize available evidence on the epidemiology of officially notified DENV infections from 2010–2021. In total, 1043 DENV infection cases were diagnosed, and most of them occurred in travelers, with only 11 autochthonous cases. The annual incidence rates of DENV infections peaked during 2019 with 0.277 cases per 100,000 (95% confidence interval [95% CI] 0.187–0.267), (age-adjusted incidence rate: 0.328, 95% CI 0.314–0.314). Cases of DENV were clustered during the summer months of July (11.4%), August (19.3%), and September (12.7%). The areas characterized by higher notification rates were north-western (29.0%), and mostly north-eastern Italy (41.3%). The risk for DENV infection in travelers increased in the time period 2015–2019 (risk ratio [RR] 1.808, 95% CI 1.594–2.051) and even during 2020–2021 (RR 1.771, 95% CI 1.238–2.543). Higher risk for DENV was additionally reported in male subjects compared with females subjects, and aged 25 to 44 years, and in individuals from northern and central Italy compared to southern regions and islands. In a multivariable Poisson regression model, the increased number of travelers per 100 inhabitants (incidence rate ratio [IRR] 1.065, 95% CI 1.036–1.096), the incidence in other countries (IRR 1.323, 95% CI 1.165–1.481), the share of individuals aged 25 to 44 years (IRR 1.622, 95% CI 1.338–1.968), and foreign-born residents (IRR 2.717, 95% CI 1.555–3.881), were identified as effectors of annual incidence. In summary, although the circulation of DENV remains clustered among travelers, enhanced surveillance is vital for the early detection of human cases and the prompt implementation of response measures.

Excess Mortality Attributable to COVID-19 Among Assisted Living Residents

This study examines the excess mortality attributable to COVID-19 among a national cohort of assisted living (AL) residents. To do this, we compare the weekly rate of all-cause mortality during 1/1/20-8/11/20 with the same weeks in 2019 and calculated adjusted incidence rate ratios (IRRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs). All-cause mortality rates, nationally, were 14% higher in 2020 compared with 2019 (mean, 2.309 vs. 2.020, respectively, per 1000 residents per week; adjusted IRR, 1.169; 95% CI 1.165-1.173). Among the 10 states with the highest community spread, the excess mortality attributable to COVID-19 was 24% higher, with 2.388 deaths per 1000 residents per week in 2020 during January-August vs 1.928 in 2019 (adjusted IRR, 1.241; 95% CI 1.233-1.250). These results suggest that AL residents suffered excess mortality due to COVID-19.

Accelerometer-Measured Daily Steps, Physical Function, and Subsequent Fall Risk in Older Women: The OPACH Study

We sought to investigate the association between steps per day (steps/d) and incident fall risk while also assessing the role of physical functioning on this association. Steps/d were measured by accelerometer for 7 days in 5,545 women aged 63 to 97 years between 2012 - 2014. Falls were ascertained from daily fall calendars for 13 months. Median steps/d were 3,216. There were 5,473 falls recorded over 61,564 fall calendar months. The adjusted incidence rate ratio comparing women in the highest vs. lowest step quartiles was 0.71 (95% confidence interval, 0.54 - 0.95; P-trend across quartiles of steps/d = 0.01). After further adjustment for physical function using the Short Physical Performance Battery, the rate ratio was 0.86 (0.64-1.16; P-trend = 0.27). Mediation analysis estimated that 66.7% to 70.2% of the association of steps/d and fall risk may be mediated by physical function. In conclusion, higher steps/d were related to lower incident falls primarily through their beneficial association with physical functioning. Interventions that improve physical function, including those that involve stepping, could reduce falls in older adults.

Cardiovascular risk in patients with and without diabetes presenting with chronic coronary syndrome in 2004–2016

Background It was recently shown that new-onset diabetes patients without previous cardiovascular disease have experienced a markedly reduced risk of adverse cardiovascular events from 1996 to 2011. However, it remains unknown if similar improvements are present following the diagnosis of chronic coronary syndrome. The purpose of this study was to examine the change in cardiovascular risk among diabetes patients with chronic coronary syndrome from 2004 to 2016. Methods We included patients with documentation of coronary artery disease by coronary angiography between 2004 and 2016 in Western Denmark. Patients were stratified by year of index coronary angiography (2004–2006, 2007–2009, 2010–2012, and 2013–2016) and followed for two years. The main outcome was major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE) defined as myocardial infarction, ischemic stroke, or death. Analyses were performed separately in patients with and without diabetes. We estimated two-year risk of each outcome and adjusted incidence rate ratios (aIRR) using patients examined in 2004-2006 as reference. Results Among 5931 patients with diabetes, two-year MACE risks were 8.4% in 2004–2006, 8.5% in 2007–2009, and then decreased to 6.2% in 2010–2012 and 6.7% in 2013–2016 (2013–2016 vs 2004–2006: aIRR 0.70, 95% CI 0.53–0.93). In comparison, 23,540 patients without diabetes had event rates of 6.3%, 5.2%, 4.2%, and 3.9% for the study intervals (2013–2016 vs 2004–2006: aIRR 0.57, 95% CI 0.48–0.68). Conclusions Between 2004 and 2016, the two-year relative risk of MACE decreased by 30% in patients with diabetes and chronic coronary syndrome, but slightly larger absolute and relative reductions were observed in patients without diabetes.

Neighbourhood-level social capital, marginalisation, and the incidence of schizophrenia and schizoaffective disorder in Toronto, Canada: a retrospective population-based cohort study

Background Studies have shown mixed results regarding social capital and the risk of developing a psychotic disorder, and this has yet to be studied in North America. We sought to examine the relationship between neighbourhood-level marginalisation, social capital, and the incidence of schizophrenia and schizoaffective disorder in Toronto, Canada. Methods We used a retrospective population-based cohort to identify incident cases of schizophrenia and schizoaffective disorder over a 10 year period and accounted for neighbourhood-level marginalisation and a proxy indicator of neighbourhood social capital. Mixed Poisson regression models were used to estimate adjusted incidence rate ratios (aIRRs). Results In the cohort (n = 649 020) we identified 4841 incident cases of schizophrenia and schizoaffective disorder. A 27% variation in incidence was observed between neighbourhoods. All marginalisation dimensions, other than ethnic concentration, were associated with incidence. Compared to areas with low social capital, areas with intermediate social capital in the second [aIRR = 1.17, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.03–1.33] and third (aIRR = 1.23, 95% CI 1.08–1.40) quintiles had elevated incidence rates after accounting for marginalisation. There was a higher risk associated with the intermediate levels of social capital (aIRR = 1.18, 95% CI 1.00–1.39) when analysed in only the females in the cohort, but the CI includes the possibility of a null effect. Conclusions The risk of developing schizophrenia and schizoaffective disorder in Toronto varies by neighbourhood and is associated with socioenvironmental exposures. Social capital was not linearly associated with risk, and risk differs by sex and social capital quintile. Future research should examine these relationships with different forms of social capital and examine how known individual-level risk factors impact these findings.

Educational and health outcomes of schoolchildren in local authority care in Scotland: A retrospective record linkage study

Background Looked after children are defined as children who are in the care of their local authority. Previous studies have reported that looked after children have poorer mental and physical health, increased behavioural problems, and increased self-harm and mortality compared to peers. They also experience poorer educational outcomes, yet population-wide research into the latter is lacking, particularly in the United Kingdom. Education and health share a bidirectional relationship; therefore, it is important to dually investigate both outcomes. Our study aimed to compare educational and health outcomes for looked after children with peers, adjusting for sociodemographic, maternity, and comorbidity confounders. Methods and findings Linkage of 9 Scotland-wide databases, covering dispensed prescriptions, hospital admissions, maternity records, death certificates, annual pupil census, examinations, school absences/exclusions, unemployment, and looked after children provided retrospective data on 715,111 children attending Scottish schools between 2009 and 2012 (13,898 [1.9%] looked after). Compared to peers, 13,898 (1.9%) looked after children were more likely to be absent (adjusted incidence rate ratio [AIRR] 1.27, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.24 to 1.30) and excluded (AIRR 4.09, 95% CI 3.86 to 4.33) from school, have special educational need (SEN; adjusted odds ratio [AOR] 3.48, 95% CI 3.35 to 3.62) and neurodevelopmental multimorbidity (AOR 2.45, 95% CI 2.34 to 2.57), achieve the lowest level of academic attainment (AOR 5.92, 95% CI 5.17 to 6.78), and be unemployed after leaving school (AOR 2.12, 95% CI 1.96 to 2.29). They were more likely to require treatment for epilepsy (AOR 1.50, 95% CI 1.27 to 1.78), attention deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD; AOR 3.01, 95% CI 2.76 to 3.27), and depression (AOR 1.90, 95% CI 1.62 to 2.22), be hospitalised overall (adjusted hazard ratio [AHR] 1.23, 95% CI 1.19 to 1.28) for injury (AHR 1.80, 95% CI 1.69 to 1.91) and self-harm (AHR 5.19, 95% CI 4.66 to 5.78), and die prematurely (AHR 3.21, 95% CI 2.16 to 4.77). Compared to children looked after at home, children looked after away from home had less absenteeism (AIRR 0.35, 95% CI 0.33 to 0.36), less exclusion (AIRR 0.63, 95% CI 0.56 to 0.71), less unemployment (AOR 0.53, 95% CI 0.46 to 0.62), and better attainment (AIRR 0.31, 95% CI 0.23 to 0.40). Therefore, among those in care, being cared for away from home appeared to be a protective factor resulting in better educational outcomes. The main limitations of this study were lack of data on local authority care preschool or before 2009, total time spent in care, and age of first contact with social care. Conclusions Looked after children had poorer health and educational outcomes than peers independent of increased neurodevelopmental conditions and SEN. Further work is required to understand whether poorer outcomes relate to reasons for entering care, including maltreatment and adverse childhood events, neurodevelopmental vulnerabilities, or characteristics of the care system.

Causes of Death in People With Cardiovascular Disease: A UK Biobank Cohort Study

Background Therapeutic advances have reduced cardiovascular death rates in people with cardiovascular diseases (CVD). We aimed to define the rates of cardiovascular and noncardiovascular death in people with specified CVDs or accruing cardiovascular multimorbidity. Methods and Results We studied 493 280 UK residents enrolled in the UK Biobank cohort study. The proportion of deaths attributed to cardiovascular, cancer, infection, or other causes were calculated in groups defined by 9 distinct self‐reported CVDs at baseline, or by the number of these CVDs at baseline. Poisson regression analyses were then used to define adjusted incidence rate ratios for these causes of death, accounting for sociodemographic factors and comorbidity. Of 27 729 deaths, 20.4% were primarily attributed to CVD, 53.6% to cancer, 5.0% to infection, and 21.0% to other causes. As cardiovascular multimorbidity increased, the proportion of cardiovascular and infection‐related deaths was greater, contrasting with cancer and other deaths. Compared with people without CVD, those with 3 or more CVDs experienced adjusted incidence rate ratios of 7.0 (6.2–7.8) for cardiovascular death, 4.4 (3.4–5.6) for infection death, 1.5 (1.4–1.7) for cancer death, and 2.0 (1.7–2.4) for other causes of death. There was substantial heterogeneity in causes of death, both in terms of crude proportions and adjusted incidence rate ratios, among the 9 studied baseline CVDs. Conclusions Noncardiovascular death is common in people with CVD, although its contribution varies widely between people with different CVDs. Holistic and personalized care are likely to be important tools for continuing to improve outcomes in people with CVD.

GP.1 Changes in ischemic stroke presentations and associated workflow during the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic: A population study

Background: Pandemics may promote hospital avoidance among patients with emergencies, and added precautions may exacerbate treatment delays. Methods: We used linked administrative data and data from the Quality Improvement and Clinical Research Alberta Stroke Program – a registry capturing stroke-related data on the entire Albertan population(4.3 million) – to identify all patients hospitalized with stroke in the pre-pandemic(01/01/2016-27/02/2020) and COVID-19 pandemic(28/02/2020-30/08/2020) periods. We examined changes in stroke presentation rates and use of thrombolysis and endovascular therapy(EVT), adjusted for age, sex, comorbidities, and pre-admission care needs; and in workflow, stroke severity(National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale/NIHSS), and in-hospital outcomes. Results: We analyzed 19,531 patients with ischemic stroke pre-pandemic versus 2,255 during the pandemic. Hospitalizations/presentations dropped(weekly adjusted-incidence-rate-ratio[aIRR]:0.48,95%CI:0.46-0.50), as did population-level incidence of thrombolysis(aIRR:0.49,0.44-0.56) or EVT(aIRR:0.59,0.49-0.69). However, proportions of presenting patients receiving thrombolysis/EVT did not decline (thrombolysis:11.7% pre-pandemic vs 13.1% during-pandemic, aOR:1.02,0.75-1.38). For out-of-hospital strokes, onset-to-door times were prolonged(adjusted-coefficient:37.0-minutes, 95%CI:16.5-57.5), and EVT recipients experienced greater door-to-reperfusion delays(adjusted-coefficient:18.7-minutes,1.45-36.0). NIHSS scores and in-hospital mortality did not differ. Conclusions: The first COVID-19 wave was associated with a halving of presentations and acute therapy utilization for ischemic stroke at a population level, and greater pre-/in-hospital treatment delays. Our data can inform public health messaging and stroke care in future pandemic waves.

Incidence of SARS-CoV-2 infection in a cohort of workers from the University of Porto

Background: Repeated serosurveys in the same population provide more accurate estimates of the frequency of SARS-CoV-2 infection and more comparable data than notified cases. We aimed to estimate the incidence of SARS-CoV-2 infection, identify associated risk factors, and assess time trends in the ratio of serological/molecular diagnosis in a cohort of university workers. Methods: Participants had a serological rapid test for SARS-CoV-2 Immunoglobulins M and G, and completed a questionnaire, in May-July 2020 (n=3628) and November 2020-January 2021 (n=2661); 1960 participated in both evaluations and provided data to compute the incidence proportion and the incident rate. Crude and adjusted incidence rate ratios (aIRR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) were computed using generalised linear models with Poisson regression. Results: The incidence rate was 1.8/100 person-month (95%CI 1.6-2.1), and the 6 months cumulative incidence was 10.7%. The serological/molecular diagnosis ratio was 10:1 in the first evaluation and 3:1 in the second. Considering newly identified seropositive cases at the first (n=69) and second evaluation (n=202), 29.0% and 9.4% never reported symptoms, respectively, 14.5% and 33.3% reported contact with a confirmed case and 82.6%, and 46.0% never had a molecular test. Males (aIRR: 0.59; 95%CI: 0.42-0.83) and "high-skilled white-collar" workers (aIRR: 0.73, 95%CI: 0.52-1.02) had lower incidence of infection. Conclusion: University workers presented a high SARS-CoV-2 incidence while restrictive measures were in place. The time decrease in the proportion of undiagnosed cases reflected the increased access to testing, but opportunities continued to be missed, even in the presence of COVID-19 like symptoms.

One dollar incentive improves tuberculosis treatment outcomes in programmatic settings in rural Uganda

The study aim was to determine the association of a one United States dollar (USD) dollar incentive and tuberculosis (TB) treatment outcomes among people with TB receiving treatment at a rural hospital in Uganda under programmatic settings. We conducted a quasi-experiment in which people with TB were randomised (1:1 ratio) to receive either a one USD incentive at months 0, 2, 5 and 6 (Dollar arm) or routine care (Routine arm). A second control group (Retrospective controls) consisted of participants who had a treatment outcome in the preceding 6 months. Treatment outcomes were compared between the intervention and control groups using Pearson’s chi-square and Fisher’s exact tests. The association between the incentive and treatment outcomes was determined using Poisson regression analysis with robust variances. Between November 2018 and October 2019, we enrolled 180 participants (60 in the Dollar arm and 120 in the Control group). TB cure (33.3% vs. 20.8%, p = 0.068) and treatment success (70.0% vs. 59.2% p = 0.156) were higher in the Dollar arm than the Control group, while loss-to-follow-up was lower in the Dollar arm (10.0% vs. 20.8% p = 0.070). Participants in the Dollar arm were more likely to be cured (adjusted incidence rate ratio (aIRR): 1.59, 95% CI 1.04–2.44, p = 0.032) and less likely to be lost to follow-up (aIRR: 0.44, 95% CI 0.20–0.96, p = 0.040). A one-dollar incentive was associated with higher TB cure and lower loss-to-follow-up among people with TB in rural Uganda.