Identification of ionospheric earthquake precursors in Kamchatka region based on correlation analysis

Сейсмическая активность является одним из источников изменчивости ионосферы. В данной работе на основе методики [1] исследовано изменение концентрации электронов в ионосфере, предшествующее наступлению сильных землетрясений с M ≥ 6.0 в Камчатском регионе. Данная методика основана на вычислении коэффициента корреляции между значениями критической частоты foF2 двух ионосферных станций, одна из которых расположена внутри зоны подготовки землетрясения, а другая – за ее пределами. Рассмотрены данные, полученные на двух станциях PETROPAVLOVSK (PK553) и EARECKSON (EA653) за период 01.09.2018–30.04.2021 гг. Статистический анализ критических частот foF2 показал, что для 6 из 8 землетрясений с M ≥ 6.0, произошедших на глубинах до 100 км и эпицентральных расстояниях до 500 км от расположения PK553, за 1–12 суток до их наступления предшествовало заметное уменьшение коэффициента корреляции. Seismic activity is one of the sources of ionospheric variability. In this work, we investigate electron concentration change in the ionosphere, preceding the onset of strong earthquakes with M ≥ 6.0 in Kamchatka region. The research technique is based on calculating the correlation coefficient between the critical frequency foF2 values at two ionospheric stations. One of them is located inside the earthquake preparation zone, and the other is outside it. The data obtained at two stations PETROPAVLOVSK (PK553) and EARECKSON (EA653) for the period 01.09.2018–30.04.2021 are considered. Statistical analysis of the critical frequencies foF2 showed that a noticeable decrease in the correlation coefficient was observed 1–7 days before the earthquakes for 6 out of 8 events with M ≥ 6.0 that occurred at depths of up to 100 km and epicentral distances of up to 500 km from the PK553 location.

foF2 Seasonal Prediction With IRI-2016 Over Quiet Activity at Dakar Station

This study deals with comparison between Dakar station ionospheric F2 layer critical frequency (foF2) data and both subroutines (CCIR and URSI) of IRI-2016 model predictions. Dakar station is located near the crest of the African Equatorial Ionization Anomaly (EIA) region. Comparisons are made for very quiet activity during the four seasons (spring, summer, autumn and winter) over both solar cycles 21 and 22. The quietest days per season are determined by taking the five days with the lowest aa. The relative standard deviation of modeled foF2 values is used to assess the quality of IRI model prediction. Model predictions are suitable with observed data by day than by night. The accuracy is better during spring season and poor during winter season. During all seasons, both model subroutines don’t express the signature of the observed vertical drift E×B. But they express an intense counter electrojet at the place of mean intensity or high electrojet.

Possibilities of Estimating F2 Layer Peak Plasma Frequency Using HF Radiation from High Apogee Satellites over Arctic Region

Based on the results of mathematical modeling, we consider the possibility to estimate the plasma frequency F2 layer maximum of the polar ionosphere (critical frequency, foF2) using frequency-sweeping radiation from a highly elliptical spacecraft orbit in the Arctic zone. Our modeling concerning the energy problem of radio sensing consisted of analyzing wave field parameters, received field strength, and SNR on two radio paths with the distances 1900 and 2500 km along the earth’s surface, with the satellite height varying from 10,000 to 30,000 km. Radio path orientations were selected to be close to the classical limit cases of radio wave propagation in the anisotropic ionospheric plasma: quasi-longitudinal approximation and, to a large extent, the quasi-transversal one for the quiet midday and midnight conditions. As a result of these simulations and following specific spacecraft conditions, working with an optimal probing signal was proposed for the appropriate emission power for the onboard transmitter. In the inverse problem of radio sounding of an ionized media, common mathematical inaccuracy in foF2 calculated from the transionogram, frequency dependence of the probing signals magneto-ionic group delay, was estimated. Considering and founding a possible realization of the method, physical prerequisites are discussed based on the experimental data of radio waves passing the 16,000 km long radio path for Moscow–Antarctica (UAS Vernadsky).

Ionospheric Response along Meridian for the Certain Storm Using TEC and foF2

For a long time, the equivalent ionospheric slab thickness τ has remained in the shadow of ionospheric main parameters: the maximum density, NmF2 (or the critical frequency, foF2), and the total electron content. Empirical global models have been developed for these two parameters. Recently, several global models of τ have appeared concurrently. This paper compares τ of the Neustrelitz equivalent slab thickness model (NSTM), with τ(IRI-Plas) of the IRI-Plas model, and τ(Appr) of the approximation model, constructed along the 30° E meridian using data from several ionosondes. The choice of the model of the best conformity with observational data was made, which was used to study the effects of space weather during several magnetic storms in March 2012. The effects included: (1) a transition from negative disturbances at high latitudes to positive ones at low latitudes, (2) the super-fountain effect, which had been revealed and explained in previous papers, (3) a deepening of the main ionospheric trough. The efficiency of using τ(Appr) and τ(IRI-Plas) models for studying the effects of space weather has been confirmed. The advantage of the τ(Appr) model is its closeness to real data. The advantage of the τ(IRI-Plas) model is the ability to determine foF2 without ionosondes. The efficiency of the NSTM model is insufficient for a role of a global τ model due to the accuracy decreasing with the increasing latitude.

The Impact of Sunspots Number on Critical Frequencies foF2 for the IONOSPHERIC Layer-F2 Over Erbil Station During the Down Phase of Solar Cycle 24

The ionosphere layer (F2) is known as the most important layer for High frequency (Hf) radio communication because it is a permanent layer and excited during the day and night so it is able to reflect the frequencies at night and day due to its high critical frequency, and this layer is affected by daily and monthly solar activity. In this study the characteristics and behavior of F2 layer during Solar cycle 24 were studied, the effect of Sunspots number (Ri) on the critical frequency (foF2), were investigated for the years (2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020) which represents the down phase of the solar cycle 24 over Erbil station (36° N, 44° E) by finding the critical frequency (foF2) values, the layer’ s impression times are determined for the days of solstice as well as equinox, where the solar activity was examined for the days of the winter and summer solstice and the days of the spring and autumn equinoxes for a period of 24 hours by applied the International Reference Ionosphere model IRI (2016). The output data for foF2 were verified by using the IRI-Ne- Quick option by specifying the time, date and Sunspot number parameters. Statistical analysis was caried out through the application of the Minitab (version 2018) in order to find the correlation between the critical frequency (foF2) of Ionospheric layer F2 and Sunspot number. It was concluded that the correlation is strong and positive, this indicate that critical frequency (foF2) increase with increasing Sunspots number (Ri) for solar cycle 24.

Differences in regular and storm time ionospheric variability at magnetically conjugated locations of the Northern and Southern Hemisphere

<p>The paper is focused on differences/similarities in regular daily ionospheric variability and in the ionospheric response to CME- and CIR/CHSS-related magnetic disturbances above magnetically conjugated ionospheric stations located at Northern and Southern Hemisphere. We analysed variability of critical frequency foF2 and the F2 layer peak height hmF2 obtained for European-African sector for initial, main and recovery phases of magnetic storms of different intensity, which occurred within the last two solar cycles. We also used exclusively GPS-based detection methods, specifically information on TEC, TEC deviations in space and time from a background reference (dTEC), and the Rate of TEC change in time (ROT), all inferred from GPS receiver networks in Europe and Africa to compare behavior of Large Scale Traveling Ionospheric Disturbances (LSTIDs) at both hemispheres. We conclude that hemispheric conjugacy of LSTID is highly probable during both CME- and CIR/CHSS-related storms while interhemispheric circulation rather unlikely but still occurring during some periods.</p>

Simultaneous ionosonde investigations of the ionospheric F2 layer critical frequency and peak height at both ends of the geomagnetic tube

Based on the results of simultaneous ionosonde observations during low solar and weak magnetic activities, a coupling was found between diurnal and quasi-periodic variations in ionospheric parameters over magnetically conjugated regions, where the Ukrainian Antarctic Station (UAS) and Millstone Hill Observatory are located. A significant impact of the summer hemisphere on the nighttime variations of the F2 layer critical frequency foF2 in the magnetically conjugated region in the winter hemisphere was found. The most characteristic manifestation of this impact is the control of foF2 variations over the UAS not by the local sunset (sunrise), but by the sunset (sunrise) over Millstone Hill. It was found that the sunset over Millstone Hill leads to an increase in foF2 over the UAS, while the sunrise leads to a decrease in foF2 with a subsequent sharp increase. Both phenomena are associated with changes in the photoelectron flux from the northern hemisphere, corresponding changes in the electron temperature in the ionosphere above the UAS and the effect of these changes on the compression or rarefaction of the ionospheric plasma and changes in the plasmaspheric fluxes of H + ions. It was shown that the transition from nighttime to daytime conditions over both observation points was characterized by a significant decrease in the F2 layer peak height, and the difference in the values of this ionospheric parameter over Millstone Hill and UAS at night is due to seasonal differences in the thermospheric circulation and the difference in the behavior of the ionospheric parameters in the Northern and Southern hemispheres. Manifestations of atmospheric gravity waves, caused by the passage of local sunrise terminators, as traveling ionospheric disturbances with periods of about 90 and 75 – 120 mins over Millstone Hill and UAS, respectively, were found. These waves were most likely generated in the region located between the ionospheric F1 and F2 layers, where the sharp gradients in the electron and ion densities occur during changes in the intensity of solar radiation. It is confirmed that wave disturbances in atmospheric and ionospheric parameters can be transferred between magnetically conjugated regions by slow magnetohydrodynamic waves generated both at the heights of the ionospheric dynamo region due to the modulation of atmospheric and ionospheric parameters by atmospheric waves and the occurrence of external currents, and at the top of the plasmaspheric tube, where sharp plasma compression and heating or rarefaction and cooling occur during the passage of the solar terminator. Keywords: the ionosphere, F2 region, ionosonde measurements, geomagnetic field tube, magnetoconjugate region coupling, atmospheric gravity waves, traveling ionospheric disturbances, generation of slow magnetohydrodynamic waves

Ionosonde Data Analysis in Relation to the 2016 Central Italian Earthquakes

Ionospheric characteristics and crustal earthquakes that occurred in 2016 next to the town of Amatrice, Italy are studied together with the previous events that took place from 1984 to 2009 in Central Italy. The earthquakes with M larger than 5.5 and epicentral distances from the ionosonde less than 150 km were selected for the analysis. A multiparametric approach was applied using variations of sporadic E-layer parameters (the height and the transparency frequency) together with variations of the F2 layer critical frequency foF2 at the Rome ionospheric observatory. Only ionospheric data under quiet geomagnetic conditions were considered. The inclusion of new 2016 events has allowed us to clarify the earlier-obtained seismo-ionospheric empirical relationships linking the distance in space (km) and time (days) between the ionospheric anomaly and the impending earthquake, with its magnitude. The improved dependencies were shown to be similar to those obtained in previous studies in different parts of the world. The possibility of using the obtained relationships for earthquake predictions is discussed.