In an Imperfect World Policy Rules Cannot be Perfect Either

It is striking that economists in particular firmly believe in the benefits of rule-binding, even though this belief runs counter to the standard assumption of economic theory that we humans are self-interested and therefore extremely resourceful when it comes to circumventing inconvenient government regulations, e.g. taxes. In Public Choice Theory, politicians are even assumed to have nothing but self-interest as their guiding motive for action. Why then, in this world of thought, should ultra-self-interested politicians of all people adhere to simple rules such as the debt brake instead of bypass them, if – as is also assumed in this model world all that matters to them is short-term electoral success, for which government debt can be helpful.

Introduction to Quantitative Ecology

Modern practice of ecology, conservation, and resource management demands unprecedented levels of quantitative proficiency in mathematical modeling and statistics. This text provides foundational training in the concepts and methods of mathematical and statistical modeling used in ecology, for readers with all levels of quantitative proficiency and confidence. The first chapter presents a generalized approach to develop ecological models and introduces the “describe, explain, and interpret” framework for linking the model world to the real world. Detailed treatment of population models illustrates the myriad ways in which one can develop a model, shows how modeling choices are informed by the ecological question at hand, and emphasizes the epistemology of quantitative techniques. The second part of the book illustrates how to estimate parameters of models from data, and how to use mathematical models combined with statistics to test hypotheses. The third part of the book is devoted to an in-depth development of technical skills to implement models in two common platforms: spreadsheets and the R programming language. The book concludes by demonstrating a quantitative approach to addressing a question that spans density-dependent versus density-independent population models, fitting models to data, evaluating the strength for density dependence using model selection, and evaluating the types of dynamic behaviors that the population might exhibit.

Factive inferentialism and the puzzle of model-based explanation

Highly idealized models may serve various epistemic functions, notably explanation, in virtue of representing the world. Inferentialism provides a prima facie compelling characterization of what constitutes the representation relation. In this paper, I argue that what I call factive inferentialism does not provide a satisfactory solution to the puzzle of model-based—factive—explanation. In particular, I show that making explanatory counterfactual inferences is not a sufficient guide for accurate representation, factivity, or realism. I conclude by calling for a more explicit specification of model-world mismatches and properties imputation.

НОВАЯ КОНЦЕПЦИЯ ДЕМОГРАФИЧЕСКОГО ПЕРЕХОДА

The concept of demographic transition suggested by F.W. Notestein and the forecasts of population growth based on it are dubious, generate superfluous social optimism, and impede taking birth control measures. The civilizational crisis, predicted by E. Odum and other authors of global models and concepts of the development of the biosphere is unavoidable. Time has been lost. Numerical experiments using the model «World-2 MathCad» have shown the possibility of a cyclical development of the civilization. These cycles are caused by the deficiency of food resources and the pollution of the environment. The number of the cycles is determined by the amount of non-renewable resources. In the scenario of the spontaneous development of civilization, the demographic transition consists of 13 phases. When the development is regulated, the number of phases decreases to seven. In this case, the transition to the steady development of civilization occurs according to the logistic model of population growth.

Fostering global health policy leadership through World Health Assembly simulations: debating climate change and health

Summary The South Asian region is predicted to be among the most severely affected by the health impacts of climate change and warrants regional health policy leadership to tackle the same. Model World Health Organization (WHO) simulations offer the academic opportunity to build this leadership. This study describes the conceptualization and conduct of the ‘Manipal Model World Health Organization’ 2018 debate simulation, where a multi-professional group of students at an Indian university deliberated approaches to address the regional health impacts of climate change in South Asia. We contextualized the Model WHO debate model for a multi-professional classroom. Multi-sectoral stakeholders were engaged to draw participants from health and non-health disciplines. Participants were trained in health research literacy, policy politics, bloc politics, writing and public speaking for Model WHO. Mock sessions provided training in navigating parliamentary procedures. The debate event consisted of 22 participants and a four-member panel from diverse academic disciplines who independently assessed the deliberations. All delegations demonstrated competent written and verbal contributions. Content analysis of resolutions reaffirmed international agreements and addressed the Climate Change Health Risk Framework, and objectives of the WHO Secretariat Action Plan. Besides presenting a stratified typology of academic health policy debate simulations in global, regional, and subnational contexts, we also propose a ‘theory of change’, illustrating how academic policy discourse platforms can nurture critical thinking, research/policy literacy and leadership skills. Such initiatives help build the health policy leadership required for addressing global health challenges such as climate change.

Designing Representative Model Worlds to Study Socio-Technical Phenomena: A Case Study of Communication Patterns in Engineering Systems Design

The engineering of complex systems, such as aircraft and spacecraft, involves large number of individuals within multiple organizations spanning multiple years. Since it is challenging to perform empirical studies directly on real organizations at scale, some researchers in systems engineering and design have begun relying on abstracted model worlds that aim to be representative of the reference socio-technical system, but only preserve some aspects of it. However, there is a lack of corresponding knowledge on how to design representative model worlds for socio-technical research. Our objective is to create such knowledge through a reflective case study of the development of a model world. This “inner” study examines how two factors influence interdisciplinary communication during a concurrent design process. The reference real world system is a mission design laboratory (MDL) at NASA, and the model world is a simplified engine design problem in an undergraduate classroom environment. Our analysis focuses on the thought process followed, the key model world design decisions made, and a critical assessment of the extent to which communication phenomena in the model world (engine experiment) are representative of the real world (NASA’s MDL). We find that the engine experiment preserves some but not all of the communication patterns of interest, and we present case-specific lessons learned for achieving and increasing representativeness in this type of study. More generally, we find that representativeness depends not on matching subjects, tasks, and context separately, but rather on the behavior that emerges from the interplay of these three dimensions.

Optimization of Aceclofenac Proniosomes by Using Different Carriers, Part 1: Development and Characterization

In the contemporary medical model world, the proniosomal system has been serving as a new drug delivery system that is considered to significantly enhance the bioavailability of drugs with low water solubility. The application of this system can improve the bioavailability of aceclofenac that is used for the relief of pain and inflammation in osteoarthritis, rheumatoid arthritis, and ankylosing spondylitis. The present study is intended to develop an optimized proniosomal aceclofenac formula by the use of different carriers. Aceclofenac proniosomes have been prepared by slurry method, and different carriers such as maltodextrin, mannitol, and glucose were tried. Prepared proniosomes characterized by differential scanning calorimetry (DSC) analysis and Fourier transform infrared (FTIR) analysis revealed the compatibility of the drug chosen with the ingredient added, powder X-ray diffractometry (XRD) confirmed the amorphous phase of the prepared proniosomes, and finally, the surfactant layer was observed by scanning electron microscopy (SEM). Aceclofenac physical state transformations were confirmed with all formulas but maltodextrin proniosomes exhibited solubility more than other formulations. HPLC method has been used to analyze the niosomes derived from proniosomes in terms of their entrapment capability and drug content. The obtained results revealed that aceclofenac proniosomes can be successfully prepared by using different carriers.

TYPOLOGY OF ALTERNATIVE WORLDS: MYTH-ORIENTED SEMIOTICS

The article addresses the phenomenon of alternative world from the standpoint of universalia-oriented studies, myth-oriented semiosis and M-logic. We identify a world as an informational system correlating with a real (quasi-real, imaginary, fake etc.) state of affairs that is hierarchically yet not rigidly structured. An alternative world is identified as a result of multi-vectored, non-linear, irrationally-triggered categorization. Irrationality of cognition and categorization is connected to the sphere of myth while the “mythic space” is considered a container of axiomatic interpretational operators. The paper discusses the fundamentals of an alternative world’s construing and suggests its abstract logical model. World modeling is regarded as noemo-genesis (fluid generation of contextually relevant senses regarding a certain state of affairs). The stages of an alternative world’s development are treated off in regard to the universal patterns of open systems’ functioning. The article highlights sets of features of the said worlds’ creators involving their type of personality, type of consciousness, respective basic cognitive procedures, and patterns of language use. Primary attention is paid to providing classifications of alternative realities. According to the referential-hierarchical criterion, the worlds fall into physical, psychoemotional, mental, social, inter-social, axiological, noospheric. The deontic criterion allows identifying mythic, religious, ideological, ethnic-social, subcultural, game and textual worlds. Eventually, according to the alethic criterion, alternative worlds appear to be real, quasi-real, unreal and fake.