Influence of Climatic Conditions on Western Siberian Forest Fires

Current climate changes in Russia are attended by the increase in frequency of dangerous weather events. This chapter researches long-term variations of the dangerous weather's events on Western Siberia and to reveal general regularity, which can be associated with forest fires. The researches have been carried out for the territories of southeast of Western Siberia. The duration of the fire season increases due to climate change. This is due both to the earlier snowfall and the onset of the phenological spring, and to the increase in the duration of the thunderstorm period. Thunderstorms in Siberia are a much more frequent cause of forest fires (28%) than in other territories. Wildfire frequency is correlated with air temperature and drought anomalies.

Mathematical Modeling of Steppe Fires

The chapter presents a mathematical model of the initiation and spread of the steppe fire. The mathematical model is based on the laws of mechanics of multiphase reacting media. The main physicochemical processes describing the drying, pyrolysis, and combustion of gaseous and condensed pyrolysis products are taken into account. As a result of the numerical solution, the distributions of the velocity, temperature, and concentration fields of the components of the gas and condensed phases were determined. The dependence of the rate of spread of the steppe fire on the main parameters of the state of vegetation cover and wind speed was studied. The mathematical model presented in the chapter can be used to predict the spread of steppe fires for various types of steppe vegetation and meteorological conditions, as well as for preventive measures.

Classification of Territory on Forest Fire Danger Level Using GIS and Remote Sensing

The vegetation cover is the most important factor in forest fires, because it reflects the presence of forest fuels. The study of the variability of the vegetation cover, as well as observation of its condition, allows estimating the level of fire danger of the forest quarter. The work presents a geo-information system containing a set of tools to determine the level of fire danger of the forest quarter. The system is able to predict (determine the probability) and classify forest quarters according to the level of fire danger. The assessment of forest fire danger of Tomsk forestry of Tomsk region has been carried out. Fire probability maps of forest quarters were created based on remote sensing data and ArcGIS software.

Using Geographic Information Systems for Study of the Natural Fire Risk on the Territory of the Jewish Autonomous Region

This chapter presents a software complex to assess the fire hazard of a territory. The structure includes four subsystems: (1) collection and processing of ground-based remote monitoring data for environmental objects, including daily actual and forecast data of hydrometeorological stations, data on non-forest vegetation fires, and information on the state of vegetation in different time periods and locations of sources of fire; (2) a forecast of the spread of vegetation fires consisting of their calculated period and place of occurrence and calculated time of probable spread of grass fire to the nearest forest area; (3) a probabilistic forecast of fires to determine the areas of vegetation with high forest fire risks on a given day by using the author's method; and (4) planning strategies for the activities of fire services. The verification of this work was carried out on the territory of the Jewish Autonomous Region.

Forest Fire Danger Assessment Using Meteorological Trends

The chapter presents the results of research in the Republic of Buryatia, where the number and area of fires have increased over the past 20 years due to the rise in temperature and aridity. Most of the fires are registered in the large river valleys where pine forests are formed, which have low soil moisture capacity. Fewer fires occurred on the Eastern Sayans, Khamar-Daban ridges, and the Stanovoye Highlands, where the precipitation maximum falls. A correlation analysis was carried out between meteorological parameters and fires in climate-contrasting forests. The lack of precipitation at the end of the previous summer, combined with the hot and dry spring weather of the current year, have a significant impact on fires in the arid ecosystems of the Transbaikal middle mountains. In the humid coastal climate of the Eastern Baikal region, the high temperature of the air determines the fires, but there is no precipitation.

Influence of Environmental Conditions on the Susceptibility of the Territories to the Occurence of Forest Fires

The chapter describes the conditions of predisposition of territories to the emergence of forest fires on different continents of the world. Information on the types of forest fires and the characteristics of burning materials is given. Human and economic losses from the forest fires and other emergencies (earthquake, flood) are compared. The causes of forest fires and their dynamics in Europe, USA, Canada, Southeast Asia, and Russia are given in this chapter. An analysis of the factors of their occurrence is given. Forest fires in the Russian Federation, where they annually cover large areas, have been studied in detail. The dynamics of the burning of Russian forests in the regions and administrative districts of the Tomsk region is considered. The causes of fire emergence is revealed. The forecast of forest fires is given and zoning of forest areas of the region as for fire danger is carried out. The research identifies the role of natural conditions in the occurrence of forest fires at various territorial levels (continents, countries, regions, areas).

Dynamic Spatial-Distributed Fire Risk Analysis

The chapter develops a dynamic spatial-distributed model of forest fire risk. The structure of forest fire risk is represented by two interrelated groups of components describing a potential of forest fire and describing valuable objects being under fire influence. The concept of fire risk which contains the probability of forest fire occurrence, its intensity, and effect, is extended using the threat as the additional prognostic spatial-temporal component that has a predictive property and allows forecasting the possibility of losses at any time. The model of fire risk is based on three stages: potential risk, the source of which is described by fire danger; risk of threat of active forest fire which hasn't covered valuable object yet; risk of destruction when the active fire has covered valuable object. Representation of risk as a process based on three stages allows describing the dynamics of risk in real-time systems, getting insight into risk nature, as well as diagnosing the situation in real time.

Predicting Forest Fire Numbers Using Deterministic-Probabilistic Approach

The annual task of forecasting forest fire danger is becoming increasingly relevant, especially in the context of global warming. The forecast of surface fires is most important, as more than 80% of all vegetation fires are surface fires. Practically all crown fires develop from surface fires. This chapter discusses the deterministic-probabilistic method for predicting the number of forest fires in a controlled forest area. This methodology is based on the assumption that the number of registered and projected forest fires is related to the probability of their occurrence. The influence of forest fire retrospective data on the predicted number of forest fires for some sites of the Timiryazevskiy forestry of the Tomsk region was studied. This chapter presents the results of a comparative analysis of forecast data and statistics.

The Dynamics of Surface Forest Fire and Forest Fuel Ignition Under the Heat Radiation From the Fire Line

The chapter presents the results of experimental-analytical modeling of the surface forest fire dynamics and the process of forest fuel ignition when exposed to thermal radiation from the fire line. The regularities are established for the occurrence and spread of fires in natural ecosystems of the temperate climatic zone. Analytical solutions have been obtained that make it possible to predict the level of heat load on the soil cover of coniferous stands. The special computer program has been developed to calculate the heat load during fires. The methods of field and laboratory modeling revealed patterns of forest fuel heating and ignition depending on moisture content. A practice-oriented method is proposed to calculate the width of fire barriers that limit the spread of forest fires. The methods for creating fire barriers are proposed.

Mathematical Simulation of Anthropogenic Load on Forested Territories for Point Source

An anthropogenic load is the main cause of forest fires in the vicinity of settlements and various objects of transport or industrial infrastructure. It is proposed to mark out linear and point sources of anthropogenic load. For the numerical simulation, the similarity in the processes of propagation of anthropogenic load and diffusive heat transfer was used. The quantitative characteristic of the anthropogenic load is the virtual (possible) number of forest fires in the controlled forest area. A mathematical model to predict the distribution of anthropogenic load from a point source is presented. Distributions of the virtual number of forest fires for model data from a point source of anthropogenic load are obtained. Conclusions about the patterns of the distribution of anthropogenic load from a point source are formulated. The prospects for the further development of these results are described.