Dynamic Spatial-Distributed Fire Risk Analysis

Author(s):  
Maryna Vitalievna Zharikova

The chapter develops a dynamic spatial-distributed model of forest fire risk. The structure of forest fire risk is represented by two interrelated groups of components describing a potential of forest fire and describing valuable objects being under fire influence. The concept of fire risk which contains the probability of forest fire occurrence, its intensity, and effect, is extended using the threat as the additional prognostic spatial-temporal component that has a predictive property and allows forecasting the possibility of losses at any time. The model of fire risk is based on three stages: potential risk, the source of which is described by fire danger; risk of threat of active forest fire which hasn't covered valuable object yet; risk of destruction when the active fire has covered valuable object. Representation of risk as a process based on three stages allows describing the dynamics of risk in real-time systems, getting insight into risk nature, as well as diagnosing the situation in real time.

2005 ◽  
Vol 11 (3) ◽  
pp. 617-626 ◽  
Author(s):  
Marc Bonazountas ◽  
Despina Kallidromitou ◽  
P. A. Kassomenos ◽  
N. Passas

Author(s):  
Claudia Vivalda ◽  
Vittorio Verda ◽  
Andrea Carpignano ◽  
Cristiana Dell’Erba ◽  
Daniele Cagliero ◽  
...  

Author(s):  
S. Nikhil ◽  
Jean Homian Danumah ◽  
Sunil Saha ◽  
Megha K. Prasad ◽  
A. Rajaneesh ◽  
...  

Author(s):  
S. Mariscal ◽  
M. Ríos ◽  
F. Soria

Abstract. Forest fires have negative effects on biodiversity, the atmosphere and human health. The paper presents a spatial risk model as a tool to assess them. Risk areas refer to sectors prone to the spread of fire, in addition to the influence of human activity through remote sensing and multi-criteria analysis. The analysis includes information on land cover, land use, topography (aspect, slope and elevation), climate (temperature and precipitation) and socio-economic factors (proximity to settlements and roads). Weights were assigned to each in order to generate the forest fire risk map. The investigation was carried for a Biological Reserve in Bolivia because of the continuous occurrence of forest fires. Five risk categories for forest fires were derived: very high, high, moderate, low and very low. In summary, results suggest that approximately 67% of the protected area presents a moderate to very high risk; in the latter, populated areas are not dense which reduces the actual risk to the type of events analyzed.


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