Large silicic magma bodies and very large magnitude explosive eruptions

Over the last 20 years, new concepts have emerged into understanding the processes that lead to build up to large silicic explosive eruptions based on integration of geophysical, geochemical, petrological, geochronological and dynamical modelling. Silicic melts are generated within magma systems extending throughout the crust by segregation from mushy zones. Segregated melt layers become unstable and can assemble into ephemeral upper crustal magma chambers rapidly prior to eruption. In the next 10 years, we can expect major advances in dynamical models as well as in analytical and geophysical methods, which need to be underpinned in field research.

Volcanic air pollution and human health: recent advances and future directions

Volcanic air pollution from both explosive and effusive activity can affect large populations as far as thousands of kilometers away from the source, for days to decades or even centuries. Here, we summarize key advances and prospects in the assessment of health hazards, effects, risk, and management. Recent advances include standardized ash assessment methods to characterize the multiple physicochemical characteristics that might influence toxicity; the rise of community-based air quality monitoring networks using low-cost gas and particulate sensors; the development of forecasting methods for ground-level concentrations and associated public advisories; the development of risk and impact assessment methods to explore health consequences of future eruptions; and the development of evidence-based, locally specific measures for health protection. However, it remains problematic that the health effects of many major and sometimes long-duration eruptions near large populations have gone completely unmonitored. Similarly, effects of prolonged degassing on exposed populations have received very little attention relative to explosive eruptions. Furthermore, very few studies have longitudinally followed populations chronically exposed to volcanic emissions; thus, knowledge gaps remain about whether chronic exposures can trigger development of potentially fatal diseases. Instigating such studies will be facilitated by continued co-development of standardized protocols, supporting local study teams and procuring equipment, funding, and ethical permissions. Relationship building between visiting researchers and host country academic, observatory, and agency partners is vital and can, in turn, support the effective communication of health impacts of volcanic air pollution to populations, health practitioners, and emergency managers.

Strengthening local volcano observatories through global collaborations

We consider the future of volcano observatories in a world where new satellite technologies and global data initiatives have greatly expanded over the last two decades. Observatories remain the critical tie between the decision-making authorities and monitoring data. In the coming decade, the global scientific community needs to continue to collaborate in a manner that will strengthen volcano observatories while building those databases and scientific models that allow us to improve forecasts of eruptions and mitigate their impacts. Observatories in turn need to contribute data to allow these international collaborations to prosper.