Trigonometric Grey Prediction Method for Turkey's Electricity Consumption Prediction

2021 ◽  
pp. 136-154
Author(s):  
Adem Tuzemen
Keyword(s):  
Evaluation Criteria ◽  
Electricity Consumption ◽  
Prediction Method ◽  
Electricity Demand ◽  
Grey Prediction ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Determining Factors ◽  
The Future ◽  
Forecasting Analysis ◽  
Short Term Forecasting

Industry and technology continue to develop rapidly in today's world. The indisputable most important source of this development, energy is among the indispensables of daily life. Since it is one of the determining factors for the country's economy, the future forecast of electricity demand means calculating the future steps. Based on this, to forecast Turkey's electricity demand, it was benefited from grey model (GM) and trigonometric GM (TGM) techniques. The data set includes annual electricity consumption for the period 1970-2018. The performances of the methods determined were compared based on the forecast evaluation criteria (MSE, MAD, MAPE, and RMSE). Short-term forecasting analysis was carried out by determining the method that gives these values to a minimum. In the future forecast, it has been determined that electricity consumption will increase continuously.

Study of Short-Term Wind Power Forecasting Based on Adaptive Grey Prediction Method

2015 ◽  
Vol 734 ◽  
pp. 697-700 ◽  
Author(s):  
Wen Zhen Cai ◽  
Dong Tao Wang ◽  
Yuan Song Wang ◽  
Yong Yang ◽  
Zhi Long Gao
Keyword(s):  
Wind Power ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Prediction Method ◽  
Test System ◽  
Grey Prediction ◽  
Grey System ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Wind Power Forecasting ◽  
Short Term Forecasting ◽  
Power Forecasting

With the wind power developing fast in the world, the large scale of wind power integration in power system leads to great challenges, and the wind power forecasting will play a key role in dealing with these challenges. A wind power short-term forecasting method based on grey system is introduced in this paper. Firstly, a basic model of grey prediction method is given. Then, in order to smoothen the basic data for the grey modeling, a self adaptive grey prediction method is developed. Finally, the result of prediction for a test system of wind power are presented and the effectiveness of the method given by the paper has been proved.

scholarly journals Substation DC system grounding fault prediction method

2021 ◽  
Vol 252 ◽  
pp. 01036
Author(s):  
Guozhong Wang
Keyword(s):  
Leakage Current ◽  
Prediction Error ◽  
Prediction Method ◽  
Fault Prediction ◽  
Prediction Algorithm ◽  
Grey Prediction ◽  
Dc System ◽  
Ground Fault ◽  
Fault Parameters ◽  
The Future

There may be disturbance and uncertainty in the collection of leakage current in DC system of substation, which leads to the decrease of accuracy and increase of prediction error. Based on this, an improved grey prediction method is proposed to predict DC system branch grounding fault. Firstly, the characteristics of DC system ground fault parameters are collected. Secondly, the improved grey prediction algorithm is used to predict and estimate whether the detection reaches the fault threshold in the future. Finally, the validity of the proposed method is verified by MATLAB modeling.

Scenario Analysis of City Residential Electricity Consumption Based on the Time-Series Forecast - Taking Quanzhou City as an Example

2012 ◽  
Vol 178-181 ◽  
pp. 184-188
Author(s):  
Xiang Chao Hou ◽  
Lu Jie Zhu
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Electricity Consumption ◽  
Prediction Method ◽  
Residential Building ◽  
Building Energy Efficiency ◽  
Effective Measure ◽  
Time Series Forecast ◽  
Development Scenarios ◽  
The Future ◽  
Residential Electricity

In this paper, the development scenarios of electricity consumption of city residents living were analyzed by using the prediction method of time-series smoothing. The simulation calculation to the future development scenarios of electricity consumption forecasts the electricity consumption values of residential building in this case area from 2010 to 2050. The conclusion, that controlling living area per person is most effective measure, has reference significance for the future residential building energy efficiency work.

scholarly journals Forecasting the wind power generation in China by seasonal grey forecasting model based on collaborative optimization

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Aodi Sui ◽  
Wuyong Qian
Keyword(s):  
Power Generation ◽  
Wind Power ◽  
Prediction Method ◽  
Small Sample ◽  
Wind Power Generation ◽  
Collaborative Optimization ◽  
Grey Prediction ◽  
Model Based ◽  
Proposed Model ◽  
The Future

Renewable energy represented by wind energy plays an increasingly important role in China's national energy system. The accurate prediction of wind power generation is of great significance to China's energy planning and power grid dispatch. However, due to the late development of the wind power industry in China and the lag of power enterprise information, there are little historical data available at present. Therefore, the traditional large sample prediction method is difficult to be applied to the forecasting of wind power generation in China. For this kind of small sample and poor information problem, the grey prediction method can give a good solution. Thus, given the seasonal and long memory characteristics of the seasonal wind power generation, this paper constructs a seasonal discrete grey prediction model based on collaborative optimization. On the one hand, the model is based on moving average filtering algorithm to realize the recognition of seasonal and trend features. On the other hand, based on the optimization of fractional order and initial value, the collaborative optimization of trend and season is realized. To verify the practicability and accuracy of the proposed model, this paper uses the model to predict the quarterly wind power generation of China from 2012Q1 to 2020Q1, and compares the prediction results with the prediction results of the traditional GM(1,1) model, SGM(1,1) model and Holt-Winters model. The results are shown that the proposed model has a strong ability to capture the trend and seasonal fluctuation characteristics of wind power generation. And the long-term forecasts are valid if the existing wind power expansion capacity policy is maintained in the next four years. Based on the forecast of China’s wind power generation from 2021Q2 to 2024Q2 in the future, it is predicted that China's wind power generation will reach 239.09 TWh in the future, which will be beneficial to the realization of China's energy-saving and emission reduction targets.

scholarly journals Comparison of Spectroscopic Techniques Combined with Chemometrics for Cocaine Powder Analysis

2020 ◽  
Vol 44 (8) ◽  
pp. 851-860
Author(s):  
Joy Eliaerts ◽  
Natalie Meert ◽  
Pierre Dardenne ◽  
Vincent Baeten ◽  
Juan-Antonio Fernandez Pierna ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Gas Chromatography ◽  
Near Infrared ◽  
Evaluation Criteria ◽  
Classification Model ◽  
Support Vector ◽  
Spectroscopic Techniques ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Promising Tool ◽  
Powder Analysis ◽  
Mir Spectra

Abstract Spectroscopic techniques combined with chemometrics are a promising tool for analysis of seized drug powders. In this study, the performance of three spectroscopic techniques [Mid-InfraRed (MIR), Raman and Near-InfraRed (NIR)] was compared. In total, 364 seized powders were analyzed and consisted of 276 cocaine powders (with concentrations ranging from 4 to 99 w%) and 88 powders without cocaine. A classification model (using Support Vector Machines [SVM] discriminant analysis) and a quantification model (using SVM regression) were constructed with each spectral dataset in order to discriminate cocaine powders from other powders and quantify cocaine in powders classified as cocaine positive. The performances of the models were compared with gas chromatography coupled with mass spectrometry (GC–MS) and gas chromatography with flame-ionization detection (GC–FID). Different evaluation criteria were used: number of false negatives (FNs), number of false positives (FPs), accuracy, root mean square error of cross-validation (RMSECV) and determination coefficients (R2). Ten colored powders were excluded from the classification data set due to fluorescence background observed in Raman spectra. For the classification, the best accuracy (99.7%) was obtained with MIR spectra. With Raman and NIR spectra, the accuracy was 99.5% and 98.9%, respectively. For the quantification, the best results were obtained with NIR spectra. The cocaine content was determined with a RMSECV of 3.79% and a R2 of 0.97. The performance of MIR and Raman to predict cocaine concentrations was lower than NIR, with RMSECV of 6.76% and 6.79%, respectively and both with a R2 of 0.90. The three spectroscopic techniques can be applied for both classification and quantification of cocaine, but some differences in performance were detected. The best classification was obtained with MIR spectra. For quantification, however, the RMSECV of MIR and Raman was twice as high in comparison with NIR. Spectroscopic techniques combined with chemometrics can reduce the workload for confirmation analysis (e.g., chromatography based) and therefore save time and resources.

scholarly journals Optimal breeding-value prediction using a Sparse Selection Index

Genetics ◽  
2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Marco Lopez-Cruz ◽  
Gustavo de los Campos
Keyword(s):  
Sample Size ◽  
Dna Sequences ◽  
Genomic Prediction ◽  
Prediction Accuracy ◽  
Regularization Parameter ◽  
Selection Index ◽  
Prediction Method ◽  
Training Data ◽  
Breeding Value ◽  
Data Set

Abstract Genomic prediction uses DNA sequences and phenotypes to predict genetic values. In homogeneous populations, theory indicates that the accuracy of genomic prediction increases with sample size. However, differences in allele frequencies and in linkage disequilibrium patterns can lead to heterogeneity in SNP effects. In this context, calibrating genomic predictions using a large, potentially heterogeneous, training data set may not lead to optimal prediction accuracy. Some studies tried to address this sample size/homogeneity trade-off using training set optimization algorithms; however, this approach assumes that a single training data set is optimum for all individuals in the prediction set. Here, we propose an approach that identifies, for each individual in the prediction set, a subset from the training data (i.e., a set of support points) from which predictions are derived. The methodology that we propose is a Sparse Selection Index (SSI) that integrates Selection Index methodology with sparsity-inducing techniques commonly used for high-dimensional regression. The sparsity of the resulting index is controlled by a regularization parameter (λ); the G-BLUP (the prediction method most commonly used in plant and animal breeding) appears as a special case which happens when λ = 0. In this study, we present the methodology and demonstrate (using two wheat data sets with phenotypes collected in ten different environments) that the SSI can achieve significant (anywhere between 5-10%) gains in prediction accuracy relative to the G-BLUP.

scholarly journals Consistent satellite XCO<sub>2</sub> retrievals from SCIAMACHY and GOSAT using the BESD algorithm

2015 ◽  
Vol 8 (2) ◽  
pp. 1787-1832 ◽  
Author(s):  
J. Heymann ◽  
M. Reuter ◽  
M. Hilker ◽  
M. Buchwitz ◽  
O. Schneising ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Carbon Cycle ◽  
Detailed Comparison ◽  
Mean Difference ◽  
Total Carbon ◽  
Retrieval Algorithm ◽  
Data Sets ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Time Period ◽  
Comparison Results ◽  
The Future

Abstract. Consistent and accurate long-term data sets of global atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide (CO2) are required for carbon cycle and climate related research. However, global data sets based on satellite observations may suffer from inconsistencies originating from the use of products derived from different satellites as needed to cover a long enough time period. One reason for inconsistencies can be the use of different retrieval algorithms. We address this potential issue by applying the same algorithm, the Bremen Optimal Estimation DOAS (BESD) algorithm, to different satellite instruments, SCIAMACHY onboard ENVISAT (March 2002–April 2012) and TANSO-FTS onboard GOSAT (launched in January 2009), to retrieve XCO2, the column-averaged dry-air mole fraction of CO2. BESD has been initially developed for SCIAMACHY XCO2 retrievals. Here, we present the first detailed assessment of the new GOSAT BESD XCO2 product. GOSAT BESD XCO2 is a product generated and delivered to the MACC project for assimilation into ECMWF's Integrated Forecasting System (IFS). We describe the modifications of the BESD algorithm needed in order to retrieve XCO2 from GOSAT and present detailed comparisons with ground-based observations of XCO2 from the Total Carbon Column Observing Network (TCCON). We discuss detailed comparison results between all three XCO2 data sets (SCIAMACHY, GOSAT and TCCON). The comparison results demonstrate the good consistency between the SCIAMACHY and the GOSAT XCO2. For example, we found a mean difference for daily averages of −0.60 ± 1.56 ppm (mean difference ± standard deviation) for GOSAT-SCIAMACHY (linear correlation coefficient r = 0.82), −0.34 ± 1.37 ppm (r = 0.86) for GOSAT-TCCON and 0.10 ± 1.79 ppm (r = 0.75) for SCIAMACHY-TCCON. The remaining differences between GOSAT and SCIAMACHY are likely due to non-perfect collocation (±2 h, 10° × 10° around TCCON sites), i.e., the observed air masses are not exactly identical, but likely also due to a still non-perfect BESD retrieval algorithm, which will be continuously improved in the future. Our overarching goal is to generate a satellite-derived XCO2 data set appropriate for climate and carbon cycle research covering the longest possible time period. We therefore also plan to extend the existing SCIAMACHY and GOSAT data set discussed here by using also data from other missions (e.g., OCO-2, GOSAT-2, CarbonSat) in the future.

Forecast of the efficiency confidence interval of decision-making units in data envelopment analysis

2020 ◽  
Vol 33 (02) ◽  
pp. 431-445
Author(s):  
Azarnoosh Kafi ◽  
Behrouz Daneshian ◽  
Mohsen Rostamy-Malkhalifeh ◽  
Mohsen Rostamy-Malkhalifeh
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Data Envelopment Analysis ◽  
Confidence Interval ◽  
Data Envelopment ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Interval Model ◽  
Time Period ◽  
Proposed Model ◽  
The Future ◽  
Decision Making Units

Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) is a well-known method for calculating the efficiency of Decision-Making Units (DMUs) based on their inputs and outputs. When the data is known and in the form of an interval in a given time period, this method can calculate the efficiency interval. Unfortunately, DEA is not capable of forecasting and estimating the efficiency confidence interval of the units in the future. This article, proposes a efficiency forecasting algorithm along with 95% confidence interval to generate interval data set for the next time period. What’s more, the manager’s opinion inserts and plays its role in the proposed forecasting model. Equipped with forecasted data set and with respect to data set from previous periods, the efficiency for the future period can be forecasted. This is done by proposing a proposed model and solving it by the confidence interval method. The proposed method is then implemented on the data of an automotive industry and, it is compared with the Monte Carlo simulation methods and the interval model. Using the results, it is shown that the proposed method works better to forecast the efficiency confidence interval. Finally, the efficiency and confidence interval of 95% is calculated for the upcoming period using the proposed model.

Grey prediction models for the standard limit of vehicle noise

2017 ◽  
Vol 232 (7) ◽  
pp. 973-979 ◽  
Author(s):  
Zhendong Zhao ◽  
Changzheng Hu
Keyword(s):  
Prediction Models ◽  
System Development ◽  
Original Data ◽  
Grey Theory ◽  
Grey Prediction ◽  
Vehicle Noise ◽  
Direct Model ◽  
The Future ◽  
Quadratic Fitting ◽  
Verhulst Model

With an increasing number of vehicles and increasing environmental protection requirements, countries have accelerated the rate of revision of automobile noise standards and legislation. Scientific prediction of the limiting values in future noise standards is helpful to promote the development of automobile noise reduction technology and measurement analysis technology. The development of noise standard limits has its own objective laws and is restricted to the current and future developments in automotive technology. The amplitude of noise will be reduced increasingly less in the future. Grey prediction theory can explore the variation rules by processing a few effective data. In this paper, grey theory is used to deal with the limited original data in the vehicle noise standard. Non-equal-interval quadratic fitting of the grey Verhulst direct model to predict the future noise standard limits is selected on the basis of calculation and comparison of different models. The Verhulst model is employed to describe the system development by using the characteristics of saturation. By means of quadratic fitting, the accuracy of the Verhulst model can be further improved. The simulation results show the validity and the accuracy of the model. The prediction result is useful for standards and regulations makers and for car manufacturers.

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