Report of the NAMMCO-ICES Workshop on Seal Modelling (WKSEALS 2020)

To support sustainable management of apex predator populations, it is important to estimate population size and understand the drivers of population trends to anticipate the consequences of human decisions. Robust population models are needed, which must be based on realistic biological principles and validated with the best available data. A team of international experts reviewed age-structured models of North Atlantic pinniped populations, including Grey seal (Halichoerus grypus), Harp seal (Pagophilus groenlandicus), and Hooded seal (Cystophora cristata). Statistical methods used to fit such models to data were compared and contrasted. Differences in biological assumptions and model equations were driven by the data available from separate studies, including observation methodology and pre-processing. Counts of pups during the breeding season were used in all models, with additional counts of adults and juveniles available in some. The regularity and frequency of data collection, including survey counts and vital rate estimates, varied. Important differences between the models concerned the nature and causes of variation in vital rates (age-dependent survival and fecundity). Parameterisation of age at maturity was detailed and time-dependent in some models and simplified in others. Methods for estimation of model parameters were reviewed and compared. They included Bayesian and maximum likelihood (ML) approaches, implemented via bespoke coding in C, C++, TMB or JAGS. Comparative model runs suggested that as expected, ML-based implementations were rapid and computationally efficient, while Bayesian approaches, which used MCMC or sequential importance sampling, required longer for inference. For grey seal populations in the Netherlands, where preliminary ML-based TMB results were compared with the outputs of a Bayesian JAGS implementation, some differences in parameter estimates were apparent. For these seal populations, further investigations are recommended to explore differences that might result from the modelling framework and model-fitting methodology, and their importance for inference and management advice. The group recommended building on the success of this workshop via continued collaboration with ICES and NAMMCO assessment groups, as well as other experts in the marine mammal modelling community. Specifically, for Northeast Atlantic harp and hooded seal populations, the workshop represents the initial step towards a full ICES benchmark process aimed at revising and evaluating new assessment models.

Observation of marine mammal and bird interactions focused around a commercial fishing vessel in central Baffin Bay, Nunavut

A detailed account of a variety of species foraging on Greenland halibut (Reinhardtius hippoglossoides) fisheries discards associated with a commercial fishing vessel in central Baffin Bay, Nunavut, Canada is presented. Species observed included three marine mammals; northern bottlenose whales (Hyperoodon ampullatus), sperm whales (Physeter macrocephalus), and a hooded seal (Cystophora cristata) and two marine bird species; northern fulmars (Fulmarus glacialis) and glaucous gulls (Larus hyperboreus). Inter- and intra- species interactions were observed while species were in close proximity to the stern and starboard of a commercial fishing vessel confirming anecdotal reports from boat captains. Improved understanding of marine mammal and bird interactions with fisheries in the Arctic is required to accurately assess financial and ecological (i.e., bycatch) losses, potential for entanglement and to predict the likely impact on energy flow and transport of these resource subsidies throughout the Arctic marine ecosystem.

Seal Occurrence and Habitat Use during Summer in Petermann Fjord, Northwestern Greenland

Ice-associated seals are considered especially susceptible and are potentially the first to modify distribution and habitat use in response to physical changes associated with the changing climate. Petermann Glacier, part of a unique ice-tongue fjord environment in a rarely studied region of northwestern Greenland, lost substantial sections of its ice tongue during major 2010 and 2012 calving events. As a result, changes in seal habitat may have occurred. Seal occurrence and distribution data were collected in Petermann Fjord and adjacent Nares Strait region over 27 days (2 to 28 August) during the multidisciplinary scientific Petermann 2015 Expedition on the icebreaker Oden. During 239.4 hours of dedicated observation effort, a total of 312 individuals were recorded, representing four species: bearded seal (Erignathus barbatus), hooded seal (Crystophora cristata), harp seal (Pagophilus groenlandicus), and ringed seal (Pusa hispida). Ringed seals were recorded significantly more than the other species (χ2 = 347.4, df = 3, p < 0.001, n = 307). We found significant differences between species in haul-out (resting on ice) behavior (χ2 = 133.1, df = 3, p < 0.001, n = 307). Bearded seals were more frequently hauled out (73.1% n = 49), whereas ringed seals were almost exclusively in water (93.9%, n = 200). Differences in average depth and ice coverage where species occurred were also significant: harp seals and bearded seals were found in deeper water and areas of greater ice coverage (harp seals: 663 ± 366 m and 65 ± 14% ice cover; bearded seals: 598 ± 259 m and 50 ± 21% ice cover), while hooded seals and ringed seals were found in shallower water with lower ice coverage (hooded seals: 490 ± 163 m and 38 ± 19% ice cover; ringed seals: 496 ± 235 m, and 21 ± 20% ice cover). Our study provides an initial look at how High Arctic seals use the rapidly changing Petermann Fjord and how physical variables influence their distribution in one of the few remaining ice-tongue fjord environments.

Application of real-time quantitative PCR assays for detecting marine Brucella spp. in fish

Brucella ceti and Brucella pinnipedialis have been documented as occurring in marine mammals, and B. ceti has been identified in 3 naturally acquired human cases. Seroconversion and infection patterns in Pacific Northwest harbor seals ( Phoca vitulina richardii) and North Atlantic hooded seals ( Cystophora cristata) indicate post-weaning exposure through prey consumption or lungworm infection, suggesting fish and possibly invertebrates play an epizootiologic role in marine Brucella transmission and possible foodborne risk to humans. We determined if real-time quantitative PCR (qPCR) assays can detect marine Brucella DNA in fish DNA. Insertion sequence (IS) 711 gene and sequence type (ST)27 primer–probe sets were used to detect Brucella associated with marine mammals and human zoonotic infections, respectively. First, DNA extracts from paired-species fish (containing 2 species) samples were tested and determined to be Brucella DNA negative using both IS 711 and ST27 primer–probe sets. A representative paired-species fish DNA sample was spiked with decreasing concentrations of B. pinnipedialis DNA to verify Brucella detection by the IS 711 primer–probe within fish DNA. A standard curve, developed using isolated DNA from B. pinnipedialis, determined the limit of detection. Finally, the IS 711 primer–probe was used to test Atlantic cod ( Gadus morhua) DNA extracts experimentally infected with the B. pinnipedialis hooded seal strain. In culture-positive cod tissue, the IS 711 limit of detection was ~1 genome copy of Brucella. Agreement between culture and PCR results for the 9 positive and 9 negative cod tissues was 100%. Although a larger sample set is required for validation, our study shows that qPCR can detect marine Brucella in fish.