The article presents the theoretical and methodological principles of identifying the risks of implementing business technologies by business structures. Considering the risk as the ratio of the probability of a risk situation and its consequences, which leads to the deviation of actual results from the planned, proved the need to identify it taking into account not only risk events but also the causes, risk factors, probability and probability of occurrence and the consequences of the implementation of a risky event.
A methodological approach is proposed, which provides not only risk identification, but also allows to coordinate the process of risk minimization, scalability and flexibility, cost reduction and takes into account not only the planned and projected values of business technology performance, but also the overall planned result of business structure.
Since the process of identifying the risks of the introduction of the n-th business technology by the business structure is proposed to be considered as a set of certain sequential actions, respectively, it is logical to build an appropriate functional relationship, which includes research sources of risk situation; occurrence or change of a certain phenomenon or set of circumstances that cause a risky event; identification of risk factors that cause risk situations; the actual risk situation, which we consider as an event that is due to causes and risk factors that may lead to negative or positive consequences; consequences (result) of the risk situation in case of its implementation; the probability of a risk situation, i.e, a quantitative measure of the probability of an event and the vulnerability of the n-th business technology to the source of risk.
Given the possible limits of the apparatus of probability theory, it is proposed to use the theory of Markov processes with discrete states and continuous time in determining the probability of reducing the effectiveness of n-th business technology due to the n-th risk situation, respectively, obtained a model for from state to state, taking into account which in modeling the effectiveness of the n-th business technology of business structures provides an expansion of tools for planning and forecasting risk situations.