A New Fault Diagnosis Model for Circuits in Railway Vehicle Based on the Principal Component Analysis and the Belief Rule Base

Circuits are considered an important part of railway vehicles, and circuit fault diagnosis in the railway vehicle is also a research hotspot. In view of the nonlinearity and diversity of track circuit components, as well as the diversity and similarity of fault phenomena, in this paper, a new fault diagnosis model for circuits based on the principal component analysis (PCA) and the belief rule base (BRB) is proposed, which overcomes the shortcomings of the circuit fault diagnosis method based on data, model, and knowledge. In the proposed model, to simplify the model and improve the accuracy, PCA is used to reduce the dimension of the key fault features, and varimax rotation is used to deduce the fault features. BRB is used to combine qualitative knowledge and quantitative data effectively, and evidential reasoning (ER) algorithm is used to carry out the inference of knowledge. The initial parameters of the model are optimized, and the optimal precondition attributes, rule weights, and belief degree parameters are obtained to improve the accuracy. Through the training and testing of the model, the experimental results show that the method can accurately diagnose the fault of the driver controller potentiometer in the railway vehicle. Compared with other methods, the model shows high accuracy.

Health State Prediction of Aero-Engine Gas Path System Considering Multiple Working Conditions Based on Time Domain Analysis and Belief Rule Base

The gas path system is an important part of an aero-engine, whose health states can affect the security of the airplane. During the process of aircraft operation, the gas path system will have different working conditions over time, owing to the change of control parameters. However, the different working conditions which change the symmetry of the system will affect parameters of the health state prediction model for the gas path system. The symmetry of the system will also change. Therefore, it is important to consider the influence of variable working conditions when predicting the health states of gas path system. The accuracy of the health state prediction results of the gas path system will be low if the same evaluation standard is used for different working conditions. In addition, the monitoring data of the gas path system’s health state feature quantity is huge while the fault data which can reflect the health states of the gas path system are poor. Thus, it is difficult to establish a health state prediction model only by using the monitoring data of the gas path system. In order to avoid problems, this paper proposes a health state prediction model considering multiple working conditions based on time domain analysis and a belief rule base. First, working condition is divided by using time domain characteristics. Then, a belief rule base (BRB) theory-based health state prediction model is built, which can fuse expert knowledge and fault monitoring data to improve modeling accuracy. The reference value of the feature is given by the fuzzy C-means algorithm in a model. To decrease the uncertainty of expert knowledge, the covariance matrix adaptive evolution strategy (CMA-ES) is used as the optimization algorithm. Finally, a NASA public dataset without labels is used to verify the proposed health state model. The results show that the proposed health prediction model of a gas path system can accurately realize health state prediction under multiple working conditions.

An Integrated Deep Learning and Belief Rule Base Intelligent System to Predict Survival of COVID-19 Patient under Uncertainty

The novel Coronavirus-induced disease COVID-19 is the biggest threat to human health at the present time, and due to the transmission ability of this virus via its conveyor, it is spreading rapidly in almost every corner of the globe. The unification of medical and IT experts is required to bring this outbreak under control. In this research, an integration of both data and knowledge-driven approaches in a single framework is proposed to assess the survival probability of a COVID-19 patient. Several neural networks pre-trained models: Xception, InceptionResNetV2, and VGG Net, are trained on X-ray images of COVID-19 patients to distinguish between critical and non-critical patients. This prediction result, along with eight other significant risk factors associated with COVID-19 patients, is analyzed with a knowledge-driven belief rule-based expert system which forms a probability of survival for that particular patient. The reliability of the proposed integrated system has been tested by using real patient data and compared with expert opinion, where the performance of the system is found promising.

A Novel Method for Detecting Advanced Persistent Threat Attack Based on Belief Rule Base

Advanced persistent threat (APT) is a special attack method, which is usually initiated by hacker groups to steal data or destroy systems for large enterprises and even countries. APT has a long-term and multi-stage characteristic, which makes it difficult for traditional detection methods to effectively identify. To detect APT attacks requires solving some problems: how to deal with various uncertain information during APT attack detection, how to fully train the APT detection model with small attack samples, and how to obtain the interpretable detection results for subsequent APT attack forensics. Traditional detection methods cannot effectively utilize multiple uncertain information with small samples. Meanwhile, most detection models are black box and lack a transparent calculation process, which makes it impossible for managers to analyze the reliability and evidence of the results. To solve these problems, a novel detection method based on belief rule base (BRB) is proposed in this paper, where expert knowledge and small samples are both utilized to obtain interpretable detection results. A case study with numerical simulation is established to prove the effectiveness and practicality of the proposed method.