Spatially Explicit Reconstruction of Cropland Using the Random Forest: A Case Study of the Tuojiang River Basin, China from 1911 to 2010

A long-term, high-resolution cropland dataset plays an essential part in accurately and systematically understanding the mechanisms that drive cropland change and its effect on biogeochemical processes. However, current widely used spatially explicit cropland databases are developed according to a simple downscaling model and are associated with low resolution. By combining historical county-level cropland archive data with natural and anthropogenic variables, we developed a random forest model to spatialize the cropland distribution in the Tuojiang River Basin (TRB) during 1911–2010, using a resolution of 30 m. The reconstruction results showed that the cropland in the TRB increased from 1.13 × 104 km2 in 1911 to 1.81 × 104 km2. In comparison with satellite-based data for 1980, the reconstructed dataset approximated the remotely sensed cropland distribution. Our cropland map could capture cropland distribution details better than three widely used public cropland datasets, due to its high spatial heterogeneity and improved spatial resolution. The most critical factors driving the distribution of TRB cropland include nearby-cropland, elevation, and climatic conditions. This newly reconstructed cropland dataset can be used for long-term, accurate regional ecological simulation, and future policymaking. This novel reconstruction approach has the potential to be applied to other land use and cover types via its flexible framework and modifiable parameters.

A 1 km global cropland dataset from 10 000 BCE to 2100 CE

Cropland greatly impacts food security, energy supply, biodiversity, biogeochemical cycling, and climate change. Accurately and systematically understanding the effects of agricultural activities requires cropland spatial information with high resolution and a long time span. In this study, the first 1 km resolution global cropland proportion dataset for 10 000 BCE–2100 CE was produced. With the cropland map initialized in 2010 CE, we first harmonized the cropland demands extracted from the History Database of the Global Environment 3.2 (HYDE 3.2) and the Land-Use Harmonization 2 (LUH2) datasets and then spatially allocated the demands based on the combination of cropland suitability, kernel density, and other constraints. According to our maps, cropland originated from several independent centers and gradually spread to other regions, influenced by some important historical events. The spatial patterns of future cropland change differ in various scenarios due to the different socioeconomic pathways and mitigation levels. The global cropland area generally shows an increasing trend over the past years, from 0×106 km2 in 10 000 BCE to 2.8×106 km2 in 1500 CE, 6.2×106 km2 in 1850 CE, and 16.4×106 km2 in 2010 CE. It then follows diverse trajectories under future scenarios, with the growth rate ranging from 16.4 % to 82.4 % between 2010 CE and 2100 CE. There are large area disparities among different geographical regions. The mapping result coincides well with widely used datasets at present in both distribution pattern and total amount. With improved spatial resolution, our maps can better capture the cropland distribution details and spatial heterogeneity. The spatiotemporally continuous and conceptually consistent global cropland dataset serves as a more comprehensive alternative for long-term earth system simulations and other precise analyses. The flexible and efficient harmonization and downscaling framework can be applied to specific regions or extended to other land use and cover types through the adjustable parameters and open model structure. The 1 km global cropland maps are available at https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.5105689 (Cao et al., 2021a).

ASSESSING CROPLAND ABANDONMENT FROM VIOLENT CONFLICT IN CENTRAL MALI WITH SENTINEL-2 AND GOOGLE EARTH ENGINE

The proposed analysis based on Sentinel-2 imagery provides evidence of impacts of the conflict in the Mopti region (central Mali), which has led to widescale cropland abandonment. This area is characterized by rapidly rising levels of violence since 2018, due to the presence of armed groups and the proliferation of self-defence militias. This study investigates how high-resolution optical imagery can help evaluate the linkages between violence and land cover / land use (LCLU) change. The processing environment of Google Earth Engine was used to generate the so-called 3-Period TimeScan (3PTS) product, a RGB composite combining the maximum NDVI values in the beginning, in the middle and in the end of the growing season, used to single out cultivated land for each year of interest. Theoretically, the period between June 15th and October 15th covers an annual agricultural cycle for the considered area; consequently, images acquired during that period were used to generate the 3PTS composites for the year of interest (2019) and for pre-conflict years. By comparing the situations before and after the start of the crisis, each populated site was categorized according to the degree of cropland change detected in its surroundings. The resulting overview map enables a regional-scale interpretation of farming activities in 2019, clearly highlighting localized areas of cropland abandonment in the region and showing a strong spatial correlation with incidence of conflict.

A 1 km global cropland dataset from 10000 BCE to 2100 CE

Cropland greatly impacts food security, energy supply, biodiversity, biogeochemical cycling, and climate change. Accurately and systematically understanding the effects of agricultural activities requires cropland spatial information with high resolution and a long time span. In this study, the first 1 km resolution global cropland proportion dataset for 10000 BCE–2100 CE was produced. With the cropland map initialized in 2010 CE, we first harmonized the cropland demands extracted from the History Database of the Global Environment 3.2 (HYDE 3.2) and the Land-Use Harmonization 2 (LUH2) datasets, and then spatially allocated the demands based on the combination of cropland suitability, kernel density, and other constraints. According to our maps, cropland originated from several independent centers and gradually spread to other regions, influenced by some important historical events. The spatial patterns of future cropland change differ in various scenarios due to the different socioeconomic pathways and mitigation levels. The global cropland area generally shows an increasing trend over the past years, from 0 million km2 in 10000 BCE grows to 2.8 million km2 in 1500 CE, 6.2 million km2 in 1850 CE, and 16.4 million km2 in 2010 CE. It then follows diverse trajectories under future scenarios, with the growth rate ranging from 18.6 % to 82.4 % between 2010 CE and 2100 CE. There are large area disparities among different geographical regions. The mapping result coincides well with widely-used datasets at present in both distribution pattern and total amount. With improved spatial resolution, our maps can better capture the cropland distribution details and spatial heterogeneity. The spatiotemporally continuous and conceptually consistent global cropland dataset serves as a more comprehensive alternative for long-term earth system simulations and other precise analyses. The flexible and efficient harmonization and downscaling framework can be applied to specific regions or extended to other land use/cover types through the adjustable parameters and open model structure. The 1 km global cropland maps are available at https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.5105689 (Cao et al., 2021a).

China’s greenhouse gas emissions for cropping systems from 1978–2016

China has committed to reaching carbon neutrality by 2060, which will require a drastic cut in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from all sectors, including those from agricultural activities. A comprehensive, long-term, and spatially-precise profile of agricultural GHG emissions can help to accurately understand drivers of historical emissions and their implications for future mitigation. This study constructs province-level agricultural GHG emissions in China from 1978 to 2016. It considers primary and secondary emissions from a full range of agricultural activities related to crop farming, including crop residue open burning, rice cultivation, cropland change, cropland emissions, machinery use, nitrogen fertilizer production, and pesticide production. Annual or interpolated activity data from official sources and the latest emission factors available for China were adopted in this study. The data can be used in spatial and temporal analysis of emissions from cropping systems as well as the design of mitigation strategy in China.

Cropland Changes Enhance Carbon Sequestration in Northwest China From 1995 to 2015

Background: The Northwest China has experienced dramatic changes in agricultural land area in recent years; the effects of these changes on carbon storage are unknown and cannot guide further land development policies related to carbon emissions. In this study, we evaluated the effects of cropland changes (reclamation and transfer) during 1995-2015 on carbon storage in Northwest China by using land use data, carbon density data, and statistical yearbooks with the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) method. Results: The results indicated that the area of cropland increased by 1.48×106 ha from 1995 to 2005, resulting in a total carbon sequestration of 12.46 Tg, in which conversion of cropland to forest (11.16 Tg) and other land to cropland (8.92 Tg) were the main sources of the increase in carbon storage. Specifically, regional carbon sequestration due to cropland changes exhibited an increasing trend during 1995-2002 (dominated by cropland transfer), a gradually decreasing trend during 2002-2009 (dominated by cropland reclamation), and stabilization since then (during 2009-2015). Conclusions: These results suggest that the development of high carbon density lands or the conversion of low carbon density lands are critical to increasing future carbon sequestration due to cropland change. We used a novel approach of combining land use data, carbon density data, and statistical yearbooks to assess the impact of cropland change on carbon storage; this method is promising in applications which guide agricultural land-use management.

Examining the Characteristics of the Cropland Data Layer in the Context of Estimating Land Cover Change

The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) Cropland Data Layer (CDL) provides spatially explicit information about crop production area and has served as a prevalent data source for characterizing cropland change in the U.S. in the last decade. Understanding the accuracy of the CDL is paramount because of the reliance on it for management and policy making. This study examined the characteristics of the CDL from 2007 to 2017 using comparisons to other USDA datasets. The results showed when examining the cropland area for the same year, the CDL produced comparable trends with other datasets (R2 > 0.95), but absolute area differed. The estimated area of cropland changes from 2007 to 2012, 2008 to 2012 and 2012 to 2017 varied from weak to moderate correlation between the CDL and the tabular data (R2 = 0.005~0.63). Differences in area of cropland change varied widely between data sources with the CDL estimating much larger change area. A series of image processing techniques designed to improve the confidence in cropland change estimated using the CDL reduced the area of estimated cropland change. The techniques also, unexpectedly, lowered the correlation in change estimated between the CDL and the tabular datasets. Estimated land cover change area varied widely based on analyses applied and could reverse from increasing to declining area in cropland. Further analyses showed unlikely change scenarios when comparing different year combinations. The authors recommend the CDL only be used for land cover change analysis if the error can be estimated and is within change estimates.