Proposed Improvement of Forecasting Using Time Series Forecasting of Fast Moving Consumer Goods

<p>The company discussed in this paper is a national distributor firm that distributes FMCG products. The PPIC division in the company is responsible for forecasting the demand using the combination of the moving average method and intuition according to the interest of the company. However, the PPIC staff never measures the accuracy of their forecasting method. This research paper aims to evaluate the forecasting methods used to predict the demands of 12 classes of A SKU. Four-time series forecasting methods are particularly implemented, i.e., ARIMA, moving average (MA), double exponential smoothing (DES), and linear regression (RL). Forecasting using the ARIMA method is carried out by considering the stationarity of the average and variance of the historical data points. Forecasting using DES is carried out by using the optimal alpha and gamma values of the ARIMA method. The results show that the performance of each forecasting method varies, depending on which demands of class A SKU are predicted. Based on these results, the current forecasting method utilized by the company should be improved using the time series forecasting methods leading to the smallest error values for each class of A SKU.</p>

Studi Pendahuluan Komparasi Kapasitas Produksi Pada UKM Batu Bata Berbasis Family Business

<p>This preliminary study aims to compare production capacity at the family business of bricks at Sokaraja District, Banyumas Regency. The majority of the businesses are done traditionally with family business managerial-based norms. The method used is the cost estimation analysis and the Analysis of Variance (ANOVA) method to calculate the statistical significance of production among SMEs. In addition, based on statistical analysis there are significant differences among the three bricks SMEs for production capacity. The implications of these calculations can be used as an initial step to consider in general determining the logistics conditions, sales strategies, and the role of succession in the family business. In practice, increasing production capacity, reducing production costs, and product innovation can be achieved if the involvement of family members were optimal to ensure and enhance the business’s sustainability.</p>

Proposed Office Facilities Layout in Low Voltage Electric Panel Manufacturer

<p>The electrical equipment industry in Indonesia is one of the factors that triggers economic growth. Labor productivity determines the success of project implementation. The non-optimal facility layout is one of the factors that triggers low labor productivity. The non-optimal facility layout affects the flow of information in the company. This study examines the problem of non-optimal office facility layout with TSP, ARC and ARD methods at PT. Duta Wijaya Elektrindo Engineering (PT. DWP). The method stated above can minimize the total distance traveled between office facilities so that work efficiency and workforce productivity may increase. The results of data processing indicate that the recommended office facility layout recommendations that are in accordance with the level of closeness between departments based on PST, ARC and ARD is the first recommendation. With reduced total distance traveled in the first layout of the proposed office facilities, the level of employee productivity and work efficiency will increase. The smallest total distance traveled on the proposed layout of the office facilities is 244.22 meters with a reduction of 36% from the initial conditions.</p>

Port Equipment Downtime Prediction and Lifetime Data Analysis: Evidence from a Case Study

Prediction of downtime and lifetime data for gantry cranes in a container terminal is a crucial concern for port terminals due to the requirement for maintenance planning and capital expenditure. Correct estimation of lifetime behavior for gantry cranes is complex since multiple cranes are involved, each with different costs, capacities; installation, and retirement dates. This paper develops statistically-oriented predictions for the lifetimes of container terminals company fleet of gantry cranes. Data records on downtime for cranes were collected and analyzed using Weibull, normal, and Rayleigh distributions regarding a port in southwestern Nigeria. The downtime, probability density function, cumulative density function, reliability, and hazard rate were analyzed for three shape functions of Weibull, β=0.5, 1, and 3. The same was analyzed for Rayleigh and normal distribution functions. The mean downtime was 30.58 hrs. The highest PDF, CDF, R(t) for all β =0.5, 1, and 3, were 0.26, 0.78, .030 and 13.13, respectively. However, the least values for these parameters are 0.01, 0.71, 0.25, and 0.04, respectively. These values are means for thirty data points and concern the Weibull distribution function. For the Rayleigh distribution, the mean PDF, CDF, R(t) and h(t) are 0.002, 0.042, 0.958 and 0.002 while they are 0.002, 0.456, 0.542 and 35.755 for the normal distribution. This article provides new insights into the lifetime analysis of gantry cranes in a container terminal.

Posture Analysis Using Nordic Body Map and Rapid Office Strain Assessment Methods to Improve Work Posture

<p><em>Jaya Launch Pad is a company engaged in educational services. It is undeniable that service sector companies such as Jaya Launch Pad also have a workforce whose work posture may be less ergonomic, which can lead to musculoskeletal disorders. Musculoskeletal disorders can be experienced by people of all ages. Therefore, this study focuses on work posture. This research occurred because of complaints experienced by staff. The number of samples used in this study was 1 person. This was influenced by the Covid-19 pandemic situation so that there was only 1 staff when the observation was made. The research method used was the nordic body map (NBM) to determine which parts of the body are experiencing complaints, and the rapid office strain assessment (ROSA) to measure the risk of injury due to the posture of sitting at a computer for 8 hours. The result is that the complaint assessment using the NBM questionnaire has a score of 52 (needs improvement at a later date) with 4 categories of severe pain, namely back, waist, buttocks, and buttocks. Meanwhile, the score from the ROSA table is 6 which means it is risky / dangerous so that it needs improvement. Therefore, a proposed condition is given in the form of a replacement of work facilities in the form of a work chair with adjustable height and adjustable armrests. This improvement is assumed to be able to reduce the level of staff complaints, and the calculation result of the rapid office strain assessment (ROSA) is 4 which means no risk so that this improvement is accepted and can solve the work posture problem of staff at Jaya Launch Pad.</em></p><p><em> </em></p><p> </p>

Evaluasi Risiko Ergonomi dengan Analisis Postur Tubuh untuk Mengurangi Keluhan Musculoskeletal Disorders pada Pekerja

The economy is an important thing in a country, without an economy, a country can't run. The economy of a country is certainly supported by an industrial sector, one of which is the metal and iron processing industry. Workers in the company will certainly have regulations that will regulate the workforce when doing work at the company. PT. Smart Teknik Utama Bandung is a company engaged in the processing of metal, iron, and others that produces various products derived from iron and plates. The main product of this company is Roding China. The company has a problem, namely the work posture of the employees on the production floor. Wrong work posture results in MSDs complaints among workers which reduce the quality of workers. The purpose of this research is to analyze the work posture used by the workforce is already ergonomic or not. Work posture analysis used the Nordic Body Map method, Ovako Work Posture Analysis, and Rapid Entire Body Assessment. The analysis was carried out on 12 employees from 7 workstations. With the analysis carried out, it is known that all employees have MSDs complaints which are caused by incorrect and unergonomic work postures, then suggestions are given to improve work posture to reduce MSDs complaints experienced by employees.

Kebijakan Pemerintah Mengenai Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19) di Setiap Provinsi di Indonesia Berdasarkan Analisis Klaster

Coronavirus disease (COVID-19) is a disease that was only discovered in 2019 and has been reported to have spread to almost all over the world. This pandemic has caused anxiety and fear for all Indonesians because it can be transmitted easily through humans. This study aims to cluster each province in Indonesia into certain clusters so that they can find out the characteristics, movements, and government policies that must be carried out in each cluster. This study uses secondary data regarding COVID-19 cases in Indonesia, which reached 4800 data from March 1 to August 11, 2020, in 34 Indonesian provinces. The four variables used were the number of cases of death, the number of cured cases, the number of active cases, and the number of deaths per one million population. Cluster 1 has a high risk because it has the highest variable number of active cases and the number of deaths per one million population. Cluster 2 has a low risk because it has a variable with the highest number of cured cases and the lowest number of active cases. Cluster 3 has a moderate risk because it has the lowest number of cures variable and the moderate number of active cases. The government policy in cluster 1 should prioritize the variable number of active cases and the number of death cases per one million population, cluster 2 must prioritize the variable number of deaths, and cluster 3 must prioritize the variable number of active cases.

Mereduksi Voice of Customer pada Pengembangan Produk Alat Pembuka Tutup Galon Menggunakan Analisis Faktor

Currently, bottled drinking water has become the main choice for Indonesians. The percentage of consumption of bottled drinking water by Indonesians in 2018 reached 36.28% and an increase in 2019 reached 38.25%. One package that is often used is gallon packaging. There are several problems that people find when opening the gallon lid. The results of initial interviews with the community indicated that there were several problems, including the high risk of injury to the hands if you opened the gallon lid using a knife and the hands hurt if you opened the gallon cap manually without tools. These problems can be overcome by developing a product for a gallon cap opener that is tailored to customer needs or voice of customer (VOC). The method used in this research is factor analysis. A large number of community necessities make the product development process difficult because of the many needs that must be met. The purpose of this study was to reduce the number of VOCs. The Kaiser Meyer Olkin (KMO) test was used to see the suitability of the data used in factor analysis, while Bartlett's test was used to determine the significant correlation on each indicator. The result of factor analysis shows that 12 customer needs can be reduced to 3 customer needs, namely affordable gallon cap opening price, adjustable gallon cap opener diameter, and multifunctional gallon lid opener.

Perancangan Sistem Persediaan Berbasis Website pada PT. Asahi Fibreglass

The development of technology which continues to increase rapidly has an impact on the internal processing of a company that is required to run faster. Information system technology is the main solution as a tool for activities in a company that is faster and more practical, and allows obtaining data that is more valid, precise and minimizes errors. PT Asahi Fibreglass is a company in Jakarta which started its business from 2001 which is engaged in manufacturing and marketing products for the needs of fiberglass products for industrial, residential, building and property needs. In operational activities of PT. Asahi Fibreglass has several obstacles in the process of recording stock items which still use a book-based recording method which makes recording look messy, there are differences in recording the physical stock of goods in the warehouse with the recording of goods recorded in a Microsoft Excel file, there are missing or tucked data because it still uses manual methods and is still book-based. The purpose of creating a web-based inventory information system at PT Asahi Fibreglass is a system improvement in regulating the flow or path of the process of in and out of warehouse goods that will replace the old inventory system that still uses Microsoft Excel, as well as speed up the process of making reports, and minimize errors in the inventory recording process.

Faktor Tampilan dan Penyesuaian Aplikasi pada Kualitas Layanan dalam Menganalisis Loyalitas Pengguna Transportasi Daring

The shift in the pattern of using land transportation modes from conventional to online application-based has helped shape the lifestyle pattern of using different land transportation modes for the community. However, the other side of the presence of this application-based online land transportation mode is to maintain customer needs and expectations through aspects of service quality in applications provided by application-based online transportation service providers. It is not an easy thing to do and maintain. Applications should have quality because applications are the main capital in using online transportation modes. In addition, the information listed on the online transportation mode application is an important factor in providing the suitability of the information in the application. This study aims to analyze the effect of application display factors and feature adjustments in the application on user loyalty of application-based online transportation modes. By using SMART PLS 3.0, the results of this study explain that the attitudes of users of application-based online transportation modes are influenced by the application display factors and the adjustment of features in the application. Furthermore, loyalty is influenced by the attitude of users of application-based online transportation modes. Other recent features as part of service quality can be another factor that can be used to analyze user loyalty for application-based online transportation modes. This is useful for enriching understanding in determining the loyalty of users of application-based online transportation modes.