Motivated by precision counting of BPS black holes, we analyze
six-derivative couplings in the low energy effective action of
three-dimensional string vacua with 16 supercharges. Based on
perturbative computations up to two-loop, supersymmetry and duality
arguments, we conjecture that the exact coefficient of the
\nabla^2(\nabla\phi)^4∇2(∇ϕ)4
effective interaction is given by a genus-two modular integral of a
Siegel theta series for the non-perturbative Narain lattice times a
specific meromorphic Siegel modular form. The latter is familiar from
the Dijkgraaf-Verlinde-Verlinde (DVV) conjecture on exact degeneracies
of 1/4-BPS dyons. We show that this Ansatz reproduces the known
perturbative corrections at weak heterotic coupling, including
tree-level, one- and two-loop corrections, plus non-perturbative effects
of order e^{-1/g_3^2}e−1/g32.
We also examine the weak coupling expansions in type I and type II
string duals and find agreement with known perturbative results, . In
the limit where a circle in the internal torus decompactifies, our
Ansatz predicts the exact \nabla^2 F^4∇2F4
effective interaction in four-dimensional CHL string vacua, along with
infinite series of exponentially suppressed corrections of order
e^{-R}e−R
from Euclideanized BPS black holes winding around the circle, and
further suppressed corrections of order e^{-R^2}e−R2
from Taub-NUT instantons. We show that instanton corrections from
1/4-BPS black holes are precisely weighted by the BPS index predicted
from the DVV formula, including the detailed moduli dependence. We also
extract two-instanton corrections from pairs of 1/2-BPS black holes,
demonstrating consistency with supersymmetry and wall-crossing, and
estimate the size of instanton-anti-instanton contributions.