Assessment of GRACE/GRACE Follow-On Estimates of Global Mean Ocean Mass Change

Global mean sea level has increased ~3.5 mm/yr over several decades due to increases in ocean mass and changes in sea water density. Ocean mass, accounting for about two-thirds of the increase, can be directly measured by the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) and GRACE Follow-On (GFO) satellites. An independent measure is obtained by combining satellite altimetry (measuring total sea level change) and Argo float data (measuring steric changes associated with sea water density). Many previous studies have reported that the two estimates of global mean ocean mass (GMOM) change are in good agreement within stated confidence intervals. Recently, particularly since 2016, estimates by the two methods have diverged. A partial explanation appears to be a spurious variation in steric sea level data. An additional contributor may be deficiencies in Glacial Isostatic Adjustment (GIA) corrections and degree-1 spherical harmonic (SH) coefficients. We found that erroneous corrections for GIA contaminate GRACE/GFO estimates as time goes forward. Errors in GIA corrections affect degree-1 SH coefficients, and degree-1 errors may also be associated with ocean dynamics. Poor estimates of degree-1 SH coefficients are likely an important source of discrepancies in the two methods of estimating GMOM change.

Sea-Level Fingerprints Due to Present-Day Water Mass Redistribution in Observed Sea-Level Data

Satellite altimetry over the oceans shows that the rate of sea-level rise is far from uniform, with reported regional rates up to two to three times the global mean rate of rise of ~3.3 mm/year during the altimeter era. The mechanisms causing the regional variations in sea-level trends are dominated by ocean temperature and salinity changes, and other processes such as ocean mass redistribution as well as solid Earth’s deformations and gravitational changes in response to past and ongoing mass redistributions caused by land ice melt and terrestrial water storage changes (respectively known as Glacial Isostatic Adjustment (GIA) and sea-level fingerprints). Here, we attempt to detect the spatial trend patterns of the fingerprints associated with present-day land ice melt and terrestrial water mass changes, using satellite altimetry-based sea-level grids corrected for the steric component. Although the signal-to-noise ratio is still very low, a statistically significant correlation between altimetry-based sea-level and modelled fingerprints is detected in some ocean regions. We also examine spatial trend patterns in observed GRACE ocean mass corrected for atmospheric and oceanic loading and find that some oceanic regions are dominated by the fingerprints of present-day water mass redistribution.

Ocean mass, sterodynamic effects, and vertical land motion largely explain US coast relative sea level rise

Regional sea-level changes are caused by several physical processes that vary both in space and time. As a result of these processes, large regional departures from the long-term rate of global mean sea-level rise can occur. Identifying and understanding these processes at particular locations is the first step toward generating reliable projections and assisting in improved decision making. Here we quantify to what degree contemporary ocean mass change, sterodynamic effects, and vertical land motion influence sea-level rise observed by tide-gauge locations around the contiguous U.S. from 1993 to 2018. We are able to explain tide gauge-observed relative sea-level trends at 47 of 55 sampled locations. Locations where we cannot explain observed trends are potentially indicative of shortcomings in our coastal sea-level observational network or estimates of uncertainty.

Reduced misclosure of global sea-level budget with updated Tongji-Grace2018 solution

The global sea-level budget is studied using the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) solutions, Satellite Altimetry and Argo observations based on the updated budget equation. When the global ocean mass change is estimated with the updated Tongji-Grace2018 solution, the misclosure of the global sea-level budget can be reduced by 0.11–0.22 mm/year compared to four other recent solutions (i.e. CSR RL06, GFZ RL06, JPL RL06 and ITSG-Grace2018) over the period January 2005 to December 2016. When the same missing months as the GRACE solution are deleted from altimetry and Argo data, the misclosure will be reduced by 0.06 mm/year. Once retained the GRACE C20 term, the linear trends of Tongji-Grace2018 and ITSG-Grace2018 solutions are 2.60 ± 0.16 and 2.54 ± 0.16 mm/year, closer to 2.60 ± 0.14 mm/year from Altimetry–Argo than the three RL06 official solutions. Therefore, the Tongji-Grace2018 solution can reduce the misclosure between altimetry, Argo and GRACE data, regardless of whether the C20 term is replaced or not, since the low-degree spherical harmonic coefficients of the Tongji-Grace2018 solution can capture more ocean signals, which are confirmed by the statistical results of the time series of global mean ocean mass change derived from five GRACE solutions with the spherical harmonic coefficients truncated to different degrees and orders.

Madden-Julian oscillation winds excite an intraseasonal see-saw of ocean mass that affects Earth’s polar motion

Strong large-scale winds can relay their energy to the ocean bottom and elicit an almost immediate intraseasonal barotropic (depth independent) response in the ocean. The intense winds associated with the Madden-Julian Oscillation over the Maritime Continent generate significant intraseasonal basin-wide barotropic sea level variability in the tropical Indian Ocean. Here we show, using a numerical model and a network of in-situ bottom pressure recorders, that the concerted barotropic response of the Indian and the Pacific Ocean to these winds leads to an intraseasonal see-saw of oceanic mass in the Indo-Pacific basin. This global-scale mass shift is unexpectedly fast, as we show that the mass field of the entire Indo-Pacific basin is dynamically adjusted to Madden-Julian Oscillation in a few days. We find this large-scale ocean see-saw, induced by the Madden-Julian Oscillation, has a detectable influence on the Earth’s polar axis motion, in particular during the strong see-saw of early 2013.

Global sea-level budget and ocean-mass budget, with focus on advanced data products and uncertainty characterisation

Studies of the global sea-level budget (SLB) and the global ocean-mass budget (OMB) are essential to assess the reliability of our knowledge of sea-level change and its contributions. Here we present datasets for times series of the SLB and OMB elements developed in the framework of ESA's Climate Change Initiative. We use these datasets to assess the SLB and the OMB simultaneously, utilising a consistent framework of uncertainty characterisation. The time series, given at monthly sampling, include global mean sea-level (GMSL) anomalies from satellite altimetry; the global mean steric component from Argo drifter data with incorporation of sea surface temperature data; the ocean mass component from Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) satellite gravimetry; the contribution from global glacier mass changes assessed by a global glacier model; the contribution from Greenland Ice Sheet and Antarctic Ice Sheet mass changes, assessed from satellite radar altimetry and from GRACE; and the contribution from land water storage anomalies assessed by the WaterGAP global hydrological model. Over the period Jan 1993–Dec 2016 (P1, covered by the satellite altimetry records), the mean rate (linear trend) of GMSL is 3.05 ± 0.24 mm yr−1. The steric component is 1.15 ± 0.12 mm yr−1 (38 % of the GMSL trend) and the mass component is 1.75 ± 0.12 mm yr−1 (57 %). The mass component includes 0.64 ± 0.03 mm yr−1 (21 % of the GMSL trend) from glaciers outside Greenland and Antarctica, 0.60 ± 0.04 mm yr−1 (20 %) from Greenland, 0.19 ± 0.04 mm yr−1 (6 %) from Antarctica, and 0.32 ± 0.10 mm yr−1 (10 %) from changes of land water storage. In the period Jan 2003–Aug 2016 (P2, covered by GRACE and the Argo drifter system), GMSL rise is higher than in P1 at 3.64 ± 0.26 mm yr−1. This is due to an increase of the mass contributions (now about 2.22 ± 0.15 mm yr−1, 61 % of the GMSL trend), with the largest increase contributed from Greenland. The SLB of linear trends is closed for P1 and P2, that is, the GMSL trend agrees with the sum of the steric and mass components within their combined uncertainties. The OMB budget, which can be evaluated only for P2, is also closed, that is, the GRACE-based ocean-mass trend agrees with the sum of assessed mass contributions within uncertainties. Combined uncertainties (1-sigma) of the elements involved in the budgets are between 0.26 and 0.40 mm yr−1, about 10 % of GMSL rise. Interannual variations that overlie the long-term trends are coherently represented by the elements of the SLB and the OMB. Even at the level of monthly anomalies the budgets are closed within uncertainties, while also indicating possible origins of remaining misclosures.

A Mass and Energy Conservation Analysis of Drift in the CMIP6 Ensemble

Coupled climate models are prone to ‘drift’ (long-term unforced trends in state variables) due to incomplete spin-up and non-closure of the global mass and energy budgets. Here we assess model drift and the associated conservation of energy, mass and salt in CMIP6 and CMIP5 models. For most models, drift in globally-integrated ocean mass and heat content represents a small but non-negligible fraction of recent historical trends, while drift in atmospheric water vapor is negligible. Model drift tends to be much larger in time-integrated ocean heat and freshwater flux, net top-of-the-atmosphere radiation (netTOA) and moisture flux into the atmosphere (evaporation minus precipitation), indicating a substantial leakage of mass and energy in the simulated climate system. Most models are able to achieve approximate energy budget closure after drift is removed, but ocean mass budget closure eludes a number of models even after de-drifting and none achieve closure of the atmospheric moisture budget. The magnitude of the drift in the CMIP6 ensemble represents an improvement over CMIP5 in some cases (salinity and time-integrated netTOA) but is worse (time-integrated ocean freshwater and atmospheric moisture fluxes) or little changed (ocean heat content, ocean mass and time-integrated ocean heat flux) for others, while closure of the ocean mass and energy budgets after drift removal has improved.

Impact of Low-Degree Stokes Coefficients and Spatial Leakage on Barystatic Sea-Level Rise from GRACE/GRACE-FO

<p>Temporal variations in the total ocean mass representing the barystatic part of present-day global-mean sea-level rise can be directly inferred from time-series of global gravity fields as provided by the GRACE and GRACE-FO missions. A spatial integration over all ocean regions, however, largely underestimates present-day rates as long as the effects of spatial leakage along the coasts of in particular Antarctica, Greenland, and the various islands of the Canadian Archipelago are not properly considered.</p><p>Based on the latest release 06 of monthly gravity fields processed at GFZ, we quantify (and subsequently correct) the contribution of spatial leakage to the post-processed mass anomalies of continental water storage and ocean bottom pressure. We find that by utilizing the sea level equation to predict spatially variable ocean mass trends out of the (leakage-corrected) terrrestial mass distributions from GRACE and GRACE-FO consistent results are obtained also from spatial integrations over ocean masks with different coastal buffer zones ranging from 400 to 1000 km. However, the results are critically dependent on coefficients of degree 1, 2 and 3, that are not precisely determined from GRACE data alone and need to be augemented by information from satellite laser ranging. We will particularly discuss the impact of those low-degree harmonics on the secular rates in global barystatic sea-level.</p>

Global sea-level and ocean-mass budgets using advanced data products and uncertainty characterisation

<p>Studies of the global sea-level budget (SLB) and ocean-mass budget (OMB) are essential to assess the reliability of our knowledge of sea-level change and its contributors. The SLB is considered closed if the observed sea-level change agrees with the sum of independently assessed steric and mass contributions. The OMB is considered closed if the observed ocean-mass change is compatible with the sum of assessed mass contributions. </p><p>Here we present results from the Sea-Level Budget Closure (SLBC_cci) project conducted in the framework of ESA’s Climate Change Initiative (CCI). We used data products from CCI projects as well as newly-developed products based on CCI products and on additional data sources. Our focus on products developed in the same framework allowed us to exercise a consistent uncertainty characterisation and its propagation to the budget closure analyses, where the SLB and the OMB are assessed simultaneously. </p><p>We present time series of global mean sea-level changes from satellite altimetry; new time series of the global mean steric component generated from Argo drifter data with incorporation of sea surface temperature data; time series of ocean-mass change derived from GRACE satellite gravimetry; time series of global glacier mass change from a global glacier model; time series of mass changes of the Greenland Ice Sheet and the Antarctic Ice Sheet both from satellite radar altimetry and from GRACE; as well as time series of land water storage change from the WaterGAP global hydrological model. Our budget analyses address the periods 1993–2016 (covered by the satellite altimetry records) and 2003–2016 (covered by GRACE and the Argo drifter system). In terms of the mean rates of change (linear trends), the SLB is closed within uncertainties for both periods, and the OMB, assessable for 2003–2016 only, is also closed within uncertainties. Uncertainties (1-sigma) arising from the combined uncertainties of the elements of the different budgets considered are between 0.26 mm/yr and 0.40 mm/yr, that is, on the order of 10% of the magnitude of global mean sea-level rise, which is 3.05 ± 0.24 mm/yr and 3.65 ± 0.26 mm/yr for 1993-2016 and 2003-2016, respectively. We also assessed the budgets on a monthly time series basis. The statistics of monthly misclosure agrees with the combined uncertainties of the budget elements, which amount to typically 2-3 mm for the 2003–2016 period. We discuss possible origins of the residual misclosure.</p>